First off, I don't believe the Warriors will be in need to hand out their Top 7 Draftpick to the Jazz after the season, simply because they are eager to tank, rest their top players, and have the hardest rest schedule to play of all lottery teams. That said, it's pretty clear the Jazz will get another nice 1st rounder in the Draft 2013. If they would be able to miss the playoffs this and the next year, they would have their own lottery pick in both Drafts, 2012 and 2013 (who would wander to Minnesota if they make the playoffs). The Utah Jazz are on the verge of a decision. They could decide to make a pure rebuild right away. Here is what they could do if they make a plain cut:
Trading Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap on this years draft night for high picks in the lottery.
As the 2012 draft is projected as the best in the last 5 years at least, the Jazz could get player material for the future out of this by trading their two best players right now. Jefferson and Millsap are both in the form of their lives and remain sell-high candidates at this very point of time. Taking the pure numbers Jefferson ist on of the Top 3 Centers of the league in best age this year. There are definately teams willing to trade for that. Millsap turned out to be a real leader on the floor, an allround PF, is also in his best age and additionally has a pretty okay contract (8,6m$ next year). Both players also have expiring contract, no boundaries for teams trading for them, who nevertheless can negotiate the future of the players with their new clubs during contract year. All in all, now is simply the time to pull the trigger for the Jazz.
The only problem here is: Nearly no team in the league will offer their Top 3 pick (let's see how the lottery balls roll first though). Nobody will deliberately pass on Anthony Davis, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Thomas Robinson for those two impact veteran players. The Jazz would most certainly have to fall in love with players outside of the Top 3 to make the trades.
Which teams would be ready to make a trade, let's have a look:
The WASHINGTON WIZARDS (currently Pick 2) should be willing to push things forward. They have their franchise player in John Wall, he comes into his 3rd year, and they certainly want to get playoff ready sooner than later. They traded for Nêne, giving up 2 of their biggest young talents for that. So they are certainly not in a rebuild phase anymore. The Jazz maybe could acquire some more young talent, the Wizards are ready to give away.
Example: Al Jefferson/Paul Millsap <--> Wizards 1st round Pick + Jan Vesely (though their is a question mark here, as they have to find a way to regulate the cap space)
The SACRAMENTO KINGS (Pick 4) would be another team, who failed to bring the rebuild into good numbers. Tyreke Evans comes already into his final Rookie contract year, DeMarcus Cousins is already beasting around since some weeks, and is most certainly ready to get some wins for the efforts. With Isaiah Thomas they finally found their PG out of the blue. What they could need now would be another banging big man next to Cousins to dominate the boards in the league while finally playing for the playoffs spots.
Example: Al Jefferson/Paul Millsap + Devin Harris <--> 1st round pick + Chuck Hayes + a mix of Tyreke Evans/Marcus Thornton/John Salmons
The PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS could offer as much as their two 1st rounders in case they decide not to rebuild, but to form a win-now team centered around LaMarcus Aldridge and Nicolas Batum. Al Jefferson would form an elite big man duo with Aldridge, who would rock the league massively.
Example: Al Jefferson + Devin Harris <--> two 1st rounder + ? (cap space problems ahead though)
Little chances are there, that the TORONTO RAPTORS or DETROIT PISTONS would make a move. They are equally stuck in between rebuild and Playoff contenders (wannabees). Both lack of a real star player, so I doubt they would trade away the possibility to get one in the draft. The Pistons at least could make a move to get rid of some awful contract. If yes, trades could look like this:
Raptors: Al Jefferson/Paul Millsap + Devin Harris <--> 1st round Pick + Jose Calderon + Amir Johnson
Pistons: Al Jefferson/Paul Millsap <--> 1st round Pick + Ben Gordon + Charlie Villanueva + Austin Daye + Jonas Jerebko
I don't think the CHARLOTTE BOBCATS, NEW ORLEANS HORNETS or CLEVELAND CAVALIERS would make a move, as they are clearly all about rebuild and will not give away their pick for a fine big man. The GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS - should they really keep their pick - are the only team which is loaded enough now in the frontcourt, with Bogut and Lee.
Let's take an double-trade scenario on draftday, the Jazz would have the following team on draftnight 2013:
2 Lottery Picks 2010: Derrick Favors + Gordon Hayward
2 Lottery Picks 2011: Enes Kanter + Alec Burks
3-4 Lottery Picks 2012
2 Lottery Pick 2013
would make a total of 9-10 Lottery Picks in 4 years. Nearly an whole NBA team.
Additionally to that, they also can unload the unpleasant contract of Devin Harris to free cap room with the trades on draftnight. With Jefferson, Harris and Millsap gone, the Jazz would be free to even sign 2 or 3 veterans to slightly overpaid, but therefore shorter contracts, to round up the team.
Now, that looks like a bright future!
Sonntag, 8. April 2012
Donnerstag, 22. März 2012
Rating the Deadline Trades 2012
1. Warriors deal Ellis, Udoh to Bucks for Bogut, Jackson
Warriors get:• C Andrew Bogut
• G/F Stephen Jackson
Bucks get:
• G Monta Ellis
• C Kwame Brown
• C Ekpe Udoh
• C Kwame Brown
• C Ekpe Udoh
Warriors: Grade B
One of the rare trades, where i'm a bit divided over which team came out better. The overall consense is more or less that both teams didn't really went out as winners of this first Blockbuster trade of the deadline. The Warriors were shoping Monta Ellis for years, and had deals mentioned that most of the time underestimated the worth of the player in my eyes. Ellis is a typical over the top talent who blew out, but couldn't make the team a winner with his impact, same as Iguadola and Granger for Philly and Indy (one-on-one trades between those teams where often mentioned). Now the Ws really get something big for their guy, that's a good news. Andrew Bogut really is a top 3 Center in this league when he is in shape and without injuries. Why I believe this risk makes sense is, that Bogut never really had chronical physical issues. He just had bad luck. He is 27, and has 6 or 7 years of full effect in his body. Also Bogut is a guy, who really makes a team better and a good night of him usually turns out to be a win for his ballclub. The Warriors take the gamble here, but made the right move at the right time (Bogut never was available until now). Next to their boy Monta Golden State had to sacrifice their future Center they build up for 2 years now, Ekpe Udoh. Drafted 2010 at pick 6 he automatically was thought of being a draftbust. But this year he turned out to be the guy the Warriors were searching for: An elite defender. The Bucks will have their fun with him. With Bogut in the run, the Ws not really are in need of Udoh anymore, so that switch makes sense. The last step they had to take was to get back a huge contract in Stephen Jacksons, but as they were even ready to trade this one for an even bigger one (Jefferson, see below), this financial hit they were more than ready to pay for a guy like Bogut. And finally, let's not forget this one: The Warriors will just get their 1st round pick of the strong 2012 draft, when they "make" it to be one of the 7 worst teams. Right now, they are at nr. 9 turning the chart upside. With an injured Bogut and no high scoring machine in Ellis for the rest of the way, they should achieve that goal easily.
Bucks: Grade B-
The problem the Bucks had to solve was the request for a trade by Bogut. To give away such a talented bigman is no easy decision.We guess, the Warriors was the best (and only?) one on the table. 4 positive things come out of this trade: With Monta Ellis the Bucks get a long needed offensive punch. As the Bucks are a teameffort club with no real star this destination makes somewhat sense for Ellis, who disliked the not ending trade chatter of the last years and also requested a final decision short before the deadline. He somewhat doesn't fit into the crowded wing rotation of the Bucks, having guys like Ilyasova (switched to PF recently), Delfino, Dunleavy and Harris. Also he will form another PG duo in Milwaukee as he had it in GS. But he could finally be a better fit into this team than many people think. Time will tell. Second off the Bucks get an interesting substitute at Center with young man Ekpe Udoh. He provides the Bucks with a characteristica they love: Defense. With his Rookie contract he is a nice player for the Bucks future. Thirdly the team got rid of the huge contract of Stephen Jackson, they get themselves some cap room for the future. And in the fourth place: The Bucks made there team better for this season by trading 2 players in good shape for 2 a guy who will be out for the rest of the season. As they play for the 8th seat in the east right now, that move makes sense for short term planing too.
2. Wallace moved to Nets for high Lottery Pick
Nets get:• F Gerald Wallace
Blazers get:
• F/C Mehmet Okur
• F Shawne Williams
• Top 3 Protected first-round pick
Nets: Grade E+
As the Deron Williams Trade one year back was a desperate move for an forced win-now mode without thinking twice, this years addition of Gerald Wallace was. Of course the Nets had to make a move to show their top guard that they are able to bring things to New Jersey, but to give away a Top pick they will most certainly lose, in a deep and good draftclass, to get an overaged, expensive, often injured wingman back, that is somewhat ridiculous. That's basically what the trade was about. Not to understand me wrong, I consider Wallace as a great player, but if you look what Portland had to give away one year ago to get him (Michael Jordan sent him away for basically nothing), this move looks like a crappy one. And - again - one that makes a clear path to an own build up future nearly impossible.
Blazers: Grade A
One year ago, it was the Jazz, who took advantage of the desperation of the Nets, now it's the Blazers who were in place for an favourable deal. There would have been much more interesting possibilities as I mentioned (the addition of Jamal Crawford as well for example), but the Blazers just lost a big contract of a spiral down player. Together with their own lottery pick they are capable now to add 2 high class players of the upcoming draft. The future now looks much brighter than before. The only little bad thing about the trade is the 3 M $ contract of Williams for the next season - a displeasure they Blazers can surely handle.
3. Lakers land Sessions
Lakers get:• G Ramon Sessions
• F Christian Eyenga
• Rights to swap Heat's 2013 first-round draft pick
Cavaliers get:
• F Luke Walton
• F Jason Kapono
• 2012 first-round pick (lottery-protected)
Lakers: Grade A-
The Lakers were in the run for a PG, and after it was rumoured that Sessions is more or less of the table, we thought, such a trade wouldn't go down. In opposite now, the Lakers landed Sessions, got rid of several uncomfortable contracts, and blew off the trade between the Blazers and T-Wolves to get Beasley. Kaponos Million doesn't matter as much as Luke Waltons 5,8, that remain also for next year. Sessions has a fair contract while being a young, useful PG. Additionally they get Christian Eyenga, a 1st round talent, who may see playing time in the right surrounding again. The only thing the Lakers had to sacrifice here, was their own 1st rounder, which will be a pick in the mid 20ies. They will live with this.
Cavaliers: Grade E
What did the Cavs think here? They give up one of the best backup PGs in the league for basically two guys who shouldn't be around anymore in the upcoming years, one of them they have to pay a painful high sum the next 2 seasons. They do it just to get a late round pick in the upcoming draft. That's somewhat mad crazy.
4. Lakers drop Fisher
Rockets get:• G Derek Fisher
• 2012 first-round pick (acquired from Dallas in Lamar Odom trade)
Lakers get:
• F/C Jordan Hill
Rockets: Grade B+
The Rockets basically got an 1st round pick around pick 20 for taking Derek Fishers salary. They bought the pick for around 4 to 5 Million, which is an okay prize considering the deepness of the 2012 draft, the pretty high number (it's a more mid than late round pick), and looking what other teams were ready to pay for their late rounders (CLE nearly 10 Million, GSW even about 15 Millions for their picks). Jordan Hill was gone anyway, as the team didn't extend their team option for next season.
Lakers: Grade D
The Lakers basically shredded a face of the franchise and buried a good 1st rounder for this effort. This trade next to the Nêne one showed the ugly face of the business NBA. Are the 4 Million that Fisher would earn next season really that terrible to take? Kind of ridiculous. Jordan Hill they could have picked up as Free Agent in summer anyway.
5. Blazers ship Camby to Rockets
Rockets get:• C Marcus Camby
Blazers get:
• C Hasheem Thabeet
• G Jonny Flynn
• 2012 second-round draft pick
Rockets: B-
The Rockets may think, the addition of Camby brings them into the playoffs. Well, it's worth to take a flier on that i guess. They give up 2 non-rotation players who would walk in summer anyway, a mid second rounder, and some money for that effort (Cambys contract is bigger than the 2 of Thabeet and Flynn).
Blazers: B-
In Portland this trade should have even less impact. Thabeet and Flynn could turn out as better player here, than in their previous destinations, though the chances are pretty slim i guess. For both players it's the last chance to prove they could play on the NBA level, before they have to leave the league after their contracts are up in summer. The 2nd rounder, and the little money the Blazers could spare are nice additions in this minor trade here.
6. The Jackson-Jefferson switch
Spurs get:• F/G Stephen Jackson
Warriors get:
• F Richard Jefferson
• G T.J. Ford
• Protected 2012 first-round pick
Spurs: Grade B-
The Spurs basically got rid of the 3rd year on Jeffersons ridiculous contract, worth 11 Million. That's something. Additionally to that they give Jackson the possibility to get back into the game with his old team. For this they had to sacrifice their 1st rounder in the upcoming draft, which would be in the very late 20s. As this is a deep draft, it's kind of a big oblation.
Warriors: Grade C
The Warriors really didn't want Jackson back on their team I guess. They can just do this deal (taking 11 Million voluntarily on their payroll, when they would really need that money for other additions), when they believe they can still get something out of Jefferson. If the 1st rounder turns out to be a good pick and player, this deal was worth it. Time will tell.
7. Three-team deal involving Nêne, McGee & Young
Wizards get: • F/C Nene
• F Brian Cook
• Future second-round pick
Clippers get:
• G Nick Young
Nuggets get:
• C JaVale McGee
• F/C Ronny Turiaf
Wizards: Grade B
The Wizards finally pull the trigger and give up on their hope for the young core of their team. They give away McGee and Young (him for free), to select a Top 10 Center in best age, with a long contract, who they can savely install as second most important guy in their team now. Getting rid of so much talent surely hurts, but the Wizards were certainly aware of the fact, that both players would walk away in summer, so they made the situation into gold. Concerning Nêne Hilario: It's said the Nuggets had a "buyer's remorse", which sounds pretty shitty, cause have a look at the facts: Nêne played a lot of his games during the last 3 seasons. He is not injury prone, which was kind of the popular reason everybody was throwing around, when justifying the trade. He has no chronical injuries, as the main time he missed 5 years ago was because of cancer he defeated. All in all the Wizards got a more than solid player for giving up some talented knuckleheads. That's a good trade, fellas.
Clippers: Grade A
The Clippers basically got a young top shooter without a bigger commitment for free. The second rounder should be worth the flier for that. They got involved at a late stage for the trade (Young used his no-trade clause to not have to go to Denver), and had the luck, that they got this easy to say yes offer.
Nuggets: Grade E
Nêne took the long-term contract of the Nuggets just 3 months ago, while refusing a better contract giving him more money from the Nets. In gratitude for that Denver now traded him regardless of the past just like that, for an knucklehead of a player, who will most certainly walk in summer, unless the Nuggets are ready to overpay him drastically. Like with Derek Fisher and the Lakers it's always bitter to see such a crappy business move happen, trading a face of the franchise without having a no brainer deal on the table (which would still be hard to swallow, but more understandable), especially when it even doesn't make much sense like this one here. Nêne is in his best age, and can provide good defense and rebounding while being solide on the offensive end. The Nuggets just turned themselves around to be a non-star teameffort club, and Hilario just fitted perfectly in this system. The only reason I can understand they did this, is that their Brazilian really didn't had much upside anymore. But that would have been okay for a team that just finished the fast pace rebuilding process to get this roster a shot for the next 3 to 5 years. Instead they took a big baby nobody in the league wanted to have on their roster (Washington tried to get him out of town the whole season), who can really mess up the team chemistry if he continues to bring stupid moves on and offcourt. If they at least got Young. But as he refused to be here, Denver should really have blown this one off. They were obviously desperate to do the move, at a time Nêne was a low seller because of his recent injuries. Well done, Denver, just makes you the fool of the day.
Sonntag, 11. März 2012
Trading Deadline 2012 # 2 - 10 Possible Tradescenarios
Here are some trade scenarios for the Deadline that make sense to me. I don't include unlikely, but widely discussed combinations (f.e. Dwight Howard rentals), just trades that actually sounds good to me in every way. These trades can be huge constructions as you will see.
1. The Dwight Howard 3 Team Blockbuster Trade between the Magic, Lakers and Rockets
# ORL gets: Andrew Bynum + Kevin Martin + Jordan Hill/Chase Budinger + Goran Dragic + one of two Lakers 1st round picks 2012
# LAL gets: Dwight Howard + Luis Scola + Jameer Nelson
# HOU gets: Pau Gasol
This would be kind of the classic deal that originally was on the table when Chris Paul got dealt, this time just involving D-12, and putting the pieces differently together.
Why doing this?
ORL: That's simply the best package Orlando can get on the table right now. They get the Top 5 future Center in Bynum, and can cash out Pau Gasol for 2nd string star Kevin Martin, who can immediately be the best option in the offense. Additionally they get rid of Jameer Nelsons big numbers, and replace him with cheap and young gun Goran Dragic. They get another young talent from the Rockets (Jordan Hill as Backup for the front court or Chase Budinger as backup for Hedo), and build more for their future by getting the Lakers pick.
LAL: That's simply the only way the Lakers get their hand on Dwight - dealing both of their strong trade chips, by getting back not only Dwight, but also some interesting additional players. To be honest, I think it's bluffing what the Lakers did the last month. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the Lakers doing the Howard deal in the last seconds. They are simply in need of a big move and will most certainly give away Pau Gasol in the best deal possible anyways. Here they have it all: They get their superstar to be next to Kobe, they get an immediate Gasol replacement by the ultra-solid decency Luis Scola, and finally get their PG they are searching for in Nelson, who is additionally to that also one of Howards best mates.
HOU: The Rockets simply get the deal done that was blocked some months ago. This here is the exact offer they made back then. They pulled the trigger then, they will do it here again. Period.
Tradebreaker?
The biggest question here is: Are the Lakers really willing to part with Bynum? And: Are the Magic high enough on him to take him as Howard substitute?
Chances: 90%
2. The Dwight Howard 3 Team Blockbuster Trade between the Magic, Lakers and Timberwolves
# ORL gets: Andrew Bynum + Derrick Williams + the two Lakers 1st round picks 2012
# LAL gets: Dwight Howard + Michael Beasley + Luke Ridnour
# MIN gets: Pau Gasol
Why doing this?
ORL: Next to top 5 Howard compensatory Bynum they get a huge talent and soon to be Top forward of the league in Williams. The two Lakers picks should seal the deal. This package smells strongly like a strike for the future.
LAL: Same Game like with the Rockets: The Lakers need to make a move, and Gasol is out of town anyways. Here they get the reward in form of Beasley, who they admire, and Ridnour, their future PG. Both targets they canvass anyways.
MIN: This here is the most interesting part: The Timberwolves would change their gameplan to a win-now modus. They would give away basically 2 players they are ready to get rid of anyway. But they would most certainly have to include one of their cornerstones for their future: Their Nr. 2 pick Derrick Williams. He most definately would be the dealbreaker. With the trade they could pair up the spanish tandem Gasol and Rubio, and play upstairs for the next 3 years guaranteed. The point why I think this one isn't unrealistic at all is that I spotted Minnys interest for that change already as they were trying to get rid of their 2nd pick in summer before draft. With Rubios outcome they certainly must be even more eager to change their team to a winning team right now. Plus: GM Kahn is on the decks. He is always good for such an surprising move.
Tradebreaker?
Next to the Bynum question from before of course: Is Minny interested in this move?
Chances: 80%
3. Dwight Howard stays, the Magic trade for Monta Ellis
# ORL gets: Monta Ellis
# GSW gets: JJ Redick + Glen Davis + ORL 1st rounder 2012
Why doing this?
ORL: To please Dwight by getting a straight away scorer all over the place. Monta could support Howard in a huge way by being the 2nd fiddle and strong offensive contributor. If they get Ellis they don't need Redick anymore, Bif Baby Davis was a disappointment anyways, and the 1st rounder would have to be sacrificed for a good reason.
GSW: They try to trade Ellis since years, and now they for the first time finally have an taker, who really wants him. Redick is a young guard, great shooter and contributor, who still has contract for the next season. Davis would add a big body in the frontcourt, the Warriors are always looking for. And the 1st rounder would finally sweeten the deal.
Tradebreaker?
Do the Warriors want to strengthen the Magic, despite being interested in Howard themselves?
Chances: 65%
4. Dwight Howard stays, the Magic trade for Josh Smith
# ORL gets: Josh Smith
# ATL gets: Ryan Anderson + JJ Redick + Justin Harper + ORL 1st rounder 2012
Why doing this?
ORL: The Magic get a strong PF which huge effect on the offensive and defensive end. Smith would form a tremendous tag-team with Dwight in the frontcourt. And both are known to be good friends.
ATL: The only reason to get rid of Smith right now is that he requests it. There are various rumors spreading around the net that he is, or not. Guess this is just an hoax actually, but if the Hawks would do it, they would get a PF at his top in return (which would though also be an high buying move). JJ Redick would be an nice complement from the bench (kind of an Jamal Crawford substitute), Justin Harper as backup PF (for salary reasons, Magic likely would have to waive another player), and the ORL 1st as deal sweetner. Still: This deal sucks for the Hawks.
Tradebreaker?
The unwillingness of the Hawks to split with Smith right now, when they also can do it in offseason to retain some nice draft picks.
Chances: 35%
5. The Pau Gasol to the Rockets trade without involving Dwight Howard
# HOU gets: Pau Gasol + Devin Ebanks + Darius Morris/Andrew Goudelock
# LAL gets: Luis Scola + Patrick Patterson + Jordan Hill + Goran Dragic + Chase Budinger + Courtney Lee + Marcus Morris + one of the two HOU 1st rounder 2012 OR Chandler Parsons
Why doing this?
HOU: Simply they adore Gasol, had an deal on the table since summer, and just wait to grab him right now. They want to pair the on the peek of his career Gasol with Kyle Lowry (the deal will not work involving Lowry in the package), and obviously think this would be it. The guarantee for a deep playoff run. And they would be open to trade anybody on the team not named Lowry. As Martin ain't an option (same position as Kobe Bryant) they would most certainly have to include everything else in talent they can offer. Including hot streaking 2nd rounder Parsons and/or one of their picks. Or even both? This would get crazy...
LAL: They can choose and negotiate the best package available on the market. This clearly would be kind of a rebuild and deep destructuring of their team. Scola would be the exact substitute for Gasol. Patterson, Hill and Morris could be the new generation at PF behind him. Budinger and Parsons could finally be the solution on SF since Odom is gone, and Barnes, Ebanks and Metta World Peace disappointed everybody. Dragic finally is the PG they are in deep need these days. If you add both picks they Lakers actually would have 4 (!) 1st round picks in a deep draft this year. That actually sounds like a perfect rebuilding process. (Ebanks + one of their 2nd round PGs are just in the trade for roster spot reasons. Of course the Lakers would love to drop Metta World on the Rockets, but i highly doubt that they would also accept this dump).
Tradebreaker?
Do the Lakers really want a straight up rebuild in the middle of the season with Kobe still in best shape? How much are the Rockets really willing to give up from their youngsters?
Chances: 45%
6. The long discussed Dwight Howard to the Nets trade
# ORL gets: Brook Lopez + MarShon Brooks + Anthony Morrow/Jordan Farmer + Nets 1st rounder 2012 + Rockets 1st rounder 2012
# NJN gets: Dwight Howard
Why doing this?
ORL: The trade scenario in case Dwight says: "Trade me now!". The best offer ORL can get in case the LAL scenarios fell through in their complexity.
NJN: The best package the Nets can offer. Simple and straight.
Tradebreaker?
Next to the "Do we really have to trade you now, Dwight?" question: Will the Nets give all their future assets away just to get Dwight 6 weeks earlier as they would possibly get him anyway?
Chances: 50%
7. The "We don't get Dwight, but need assets!" meets "We need a change now!" trade between the Nets and the Blazers
# NJN gets: Jamal Crawford + Raymond Felton + Gerald Wallace
# POR gets: Anthony Morrow + Jordan Farmar + Shawne Williams expiring + Mehmet Okur expiring + HOU 1st rounder 2012
Why doing this?
NJN: They need assets now, to convince Deron Williams to stay! If they fail to get Dwight without a good chance to get him in free agency this summer, they have to act. The Blazers are the most willing partner to listen, as they are nearly as desperate as the Nets. The two teams just have to work something out. Blazers want to get rid of these 3 players, who are all together nice veterans, who could move something in a new team (especially with a guy like Deron around). All 3 still have funk in the trunk, and could bring back the Nets into playoff race. Maybe that would be enough to please Deron.
POR: The Blazers simply need to get rid of the "negative elements" as McMillan will see them. They are desperate as they struggle about the Playoffs after starting so promising into the season. The deal doesn't sound too good, but is maybe the best what they can get on the market right now. Felton dead wood right now, and they could replace him with stuck-behind-Deron Jordan Farmar, who is good enough to be starter in Portland. Morrow would be a younger, long committed help from the bench behind Matthews. and with that an good Crawford substitute. Finally they contracts they are rid of in offseason, and at least a promising mid round pick for the upcoming draft as sweetner. It could get worst.
Dealbreaker?
Dwight Howard. And a simply better offer for the 3 vets on the open market.
Chances: 35%
8. The Blazers - Lakers - Timberwolves 3-way Trade
# MIN gets: Jamal Crawford + Steve Blake
# LAL gets: Michael Beasley + Raymond Felton
# POR gets: Luke Ridnour + LAL 1st rounder
Why doing this?
MIN: They want to get rid of Beasley, and desperately need a scoring SG. Crawford is just that, for a moderate price. Ridnour is expendable because of Rubio and could replace him for this season with Blake, who should be a fine backup.
LAL: They want Beasley, and need a new PG. Blake is more than expendable for them, and they would have to sacrifice their 1st rounder as deal sweetener. Ridnour would maybe the more interesting PG than Felton, so the deal could get adjusted. Felton though was a fine PG back in Charlotte and NY, and is still 26, so there is a good possibility he just needs a new surrounding to blossom again.
POR: They get rid of Crawford and Felton, get back admirable PG and a 1st for the future. This is a win-win situation for them.
Dealbreaker?
Does someone take Felton? Is LA ready to give away a 1st rounder for this?
Chances: 65%
9. The Chris Kaman Trade
10. The Kirk Hinrich Trade
1. The Dwight Howard 3 Team Blockbuster Trade between the Magic, Lakers and Rockets
# ORL gets: Andrew Bynum + Kevin Martin + Jordan Hill/Chase Budinger + Goran Dragic + one of two Lakers 1st round picks 2012
# LAL gets: Dwight Howard + Luis Scola + Jameer Nelson
# HOU gets: Pau Gasol
This would be kind of the classic deal that originally was on the table when Chris Paul got dealt, this time just involving D-12, and putting the pieces differently together.
Why doing this?
ORL: That's simply the best package Orlando can get on the table right now. They get the Top 5 future Center in Bynum, and can cash out Pau Gasol for 2nd string star Kevin Martin, who can immediately be the best option in the offense. Additionally they get rid of Jameer Nelsons big numbers, and replace him with cheap and young gun Goran Dragic. They get another young talent from the Rockets (Jordan Hill as Backup for the front court or Chase Budinger as backup for Hedo), and build more for their future by getting the Lakers pick.
LAL: That's simply the only way the Lakers get their hand on Dwight - dealing both of their strong trade chips, by getting back not only Dwight, but also some interesting additional players. To be honest, I think it's bluffing what the Lakers did the last month. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the Lakers doing the Howard deal in the last seconds. They are simply in need of a big move and will most certainly give away Pau Gasol in the best deal possible anyways. Here they have it all: They get their superstar to be next to Kobe, they get an immediate Gasol replacement by the ultra-solid decency Luis Scola, and finally get their PG they are searching for in Nelson, who is additionally to that also one of Howards best mates.
HOU: The Rockets simply get the deal done that was blocked some months ago. This here is the exact offer they made back then. They pulled the trigger then, they will do it here again. Period.
Tradebreaker?
The biggest question here is: Are the Lakers really willing to part with Bynum? And: Are the Magic high enough on him to take him as Howard substitute?
Chances: 90%
2. The Dwight Howard 3 Team Blockbuster Trade between the Magic, Lakers and Timberwolves
# ORL gets: Andrew Bynum + Derrick Williams + the two Lakers 1st round picks 2012
# LAL gets: Dwight Howard + Michael Beasley + Luke Ridnour
# MIN gets: Pau Gasol
Why doing this?
ORL: Next to top 5 Howard compensatory Bynum they get a huge talent and soon to be Top forward of the league in Williams. The two Lakers picks should seal the deal. This package smells strongly like a strike for the future.
LAL: Same Game like with the Rockets: The Lakers need to make a move, and Gasol is out of town anyways. Here they get the reward in form of Beasley, who they admire, and Ridnour, their future PG. Both targets they canvass anyways.
MIN: This here is the most interesting part: The Timberwolves would change their gameplan to a win-now modus. They would give away basically 2 players they are ready to get rid of anyway. But they would most certainly have to include one of their cornerstones for their future: Their Nr. 2 pick Derrick Williams. He most definately would be the dealbreaker. With the trade they could pair up the spanish tandem Gasol and Rubio, and play upstairs for the next 3 years guaranteed. The point why I think this one isn't unrealistic at all is that I spotted Minnys interest for that change already as they were trying to get rid of their 2nd pick in summer before draft. With Rubios outcome they certainly must be even more eager to change their team to a winning team right now. Plus: GM Kahn is on the decks. He is always good for such an surprising move.
Tradebreaker?
Next to the Bynum question from before of course: Is Minny interested in this move?
Chances: 80%
3. Dwight Howard stays, the Magic trade for Monta Ellis
# ORL gets: Monta Ellis
# GSW gets: JJ Redick + Glen Davis + ORL 1st rounder 2012
Why doing this?
ORL: To please Dwight by getting a straight away scorer all over the place. Monta could support Howard in a huge way by being the 2nd fiddle and strong offensive contributor. If they get Ellis they don't need Redick anymore, Bif Baby Davis was a disappointment anyways, and the 1st rounder would have to be sacrificed for a good reason.
GSW: They try to trade Ellis since years, and now they for the first time finally have an taker, who really wants him. Redick is a young guard, great shooter and contributor, who still has contract for the next season. Davis would add a big body in the frontcourt, the Warriors are always looking for. And the 1st rounder would finally sweeten the deal.
Tradebreaker?
Do the Warriors want to strengthen the Magic, despite being interested in Howard themselves?
Chances: 65%
4. Dwight Howard stays, the Magic trade for Josh Smith
# ORL gets: Josh Smith
# ATL gets: Ryan Anderson + JJ Redick + Justin Harper + ORL 1st rounder 2012
Why doing this?
ORL: The Magic get a strong PF which huge effect on the offensive and defensive end. Smith would form a tremendous tag-team with Dwight in the frontcourt. And both are known to be good friends.
ATL: The only reason to get rid of Smith right now is that he requests it. There are various rumors spreading around the net that he is, or not. Guess this is just an hoax actually, but if the Hawks would do it, they would get a PF at his top in return (which would though also be an high buying move). JJ Redick would be an nice complement from the bench (kind of an Jamal Crawford substitute), Justin Harper as backup PF (for salary reasons, Magic likely would have to waive another player), and the ORL 1st as deal sweetner. Still: This deal sucks for the Hawks.
Tradebreaker?
The unwillingness of the Hawks to split with Smith right now, when they also can do it in offseason to retain some nice draft picks.
Chances: 35%
5. The Pau Gasol to the Rockets trade without involving Dwight Howard
# HOU gets: Pau Gasol + Devin Ebanks + Darius Morris/Andrew Goudelock
# LAL gets: Luis Scola + Patrick Patterson + Jordan Hill + Goran Dragic + Chase Budinger + Courtney Lee + Marcus Morris + one of the two HOU 1st rounder 2012 OR Chandler Parsons
Why doing this?
HOU: Simply they adore Gasol, had an deal on the table since summer, and just wait to grab him right now. They want to pair the on the peek of his career Gasol with Kyle Lowry (the deal will not work involving Lowry in the package), and obviously think this would be it. The guarantee for a deep playoff run. And they would be open to trade anybody on the team not named Lowry. As Martin ain't an option (same position as Kobe Bryant) they would most certainly have to include everything else in talent they can offer. Including hot streaking 2nd rounder Parsons and/or one of their picks. Or even both? This would get crazy...
LAL: They can choose and negotiate the best package available on the market. This clearly would be kind of a rebuild and deep destructuring of their team. Scola would be the exact substitute for Gasol. Patterson, Hill and Morris could be the new generation at PF behind him. Budinger and Parsons could finally be the solution on SF since Odom is gone, and Barnes, Ebanks and Metta World Peace disappointed everybody. Dragic finally is the PG they are in deep need these days. If you add both picks they Lakers actually would have 4 (!) 1st round picks in a deep draft this year. That actually sounds like a perfect rebuilding process. (Ebanks + one of their 2nd round PGs are just in the trade for roster spot reasons. Of course the Lakers would love to drop Metta World on the Rockets, but i highly doubt that they would also accept this dump).
Tradebreaker?
Do the Lakers really want a straight up rebuild in the middle of the season with Kobe still in best shape? How much are the Rockets really willing to give up from their youngsters?
Chances: 45%
6. The long discussed Dwight Howard to the Nets trade
# ORL gets: Brook Lopez + MarShon Brooks + Anthony Morrow/Jordan Farmer + Nets 1st rounder 2012 + Rockets 1st rounder 2012
# NJN gets: Dwight Howard
Why doing this?
ORL: The trade scenario in case Dwight says: "Trade me now!". The best offer ORL can get in case the LAL scenarios fell through in their complexity.
NJN: The best package the Nets can offer. Simple and straight.
Tradebreaker?
Next to the "Do we really have to trade you now, Dwight?" question: Will the Nets give all their future assets away just to get Dwight 6 weeks earlier as they would possibly get him anyway?
Chances: 50%
7. The "We don't get Dwight, but need assets!" meets "We need a change now!" trade between the Nets and the Blazers
# NJN gets: Jamal Crawford + Raymond Felton + Gerald Wallace
# POR gets: Anthony Morrow + Jordan Farmar + Shawne Williams expiring + Mehmet Okur expiring + HOU 1st rounder 2012
Why doing this?
NJN: They need assets now, to convince Deron Williams to stay! If they fail to get Dwight without a good chance to get him in free agency this summer, they have to act. The Blazers are the most willing partner to listen, as they are nearly as desperate as the Nets. The two teams just have to work something out. Blazers want to get rid of these 3 players, who are all together nice veterans, who could move something in a new team (especially with a guy like Deron around). All 3 still have funk in the trunk, and could bring back the Nets into playoff race. Maybe that would be enough to please Deron.
POR: The Blazers simply need to get rid of the "negative elements" as McMillan will see them. They are desperate as they struggle about the Playoffs after starting so promising into the season. The deal doesn't sound too good, but is maybe the best what they can get on the market right now. Felton dead wood right now, and they could replace him with stuck-behind-Deron Jordan Farmar, who is good enough to be starter in Portland. Morrow would be a younger, long committed help from the bench behind Matthews. and with that an good Crawford substitute. Finally they contracts they are rid of in offseason, and at least a promising mid round pick for the upcoming draft as sweetner. It could get worst.
Dealbreaker?
Dwight Howard. And a simply better offer for the 3 vets on the open market.
Chances: 35%
8. The Blazers - Lakers - Timberwolves 3-way Trade
# MIN gets: Jamal Crawford + Steve Blake
# LAL gets: Michael Beasley + Raymond Felton
# POR gets: Luke Ridnour + LAL 1st rounder
Why doing this?
MIN: They want to get rid of Beasley, and desperately need a scoring SG. Crawford is just that, for a moderate price. Ridnour is expendable because of Rubio and could replace him for this season with Blake, who should be a fine backup.
LAL: They want Beasley, and need a new PG. Blake is more than expendable for them, and they would have to sacrifice their 1st rounder as deal sweetener. Ridnour would maybe the more interesting PG than Felton, so the deal could get adjusted. Felton though was a fine PG back in Charlotte and NY, and is still 26, so there is a good possibility he just needs a new surrounding to blossom again.
POR: They get rid of Crawford and Felton, get back admirable PG and a 1st for the future. This is a win-win situation for them.
Dealbreaker?
Does someone take Felton? Is LA ready to give away a 1st rounder for this?
Chances: 65%
9. The Chris Kaman Trade
10. The Kirk Hinrich Trade
Samstag, 10. März 2012
Trading Deadline 2012 #1 - 10 teams who might have to trade
1. Orlando Magic
Either there is a Dwight Howard Blockbuster Trade or there is not. But even then: The Magic will have to make a (big) move, to show Howard that they are willing to move their roster for him anytime. Despite that, it's their last chance to try to form a good team around their beast in the middle, and the last chance to convince the guy to stay.
Chances of Trades: 99%
2. New Jersey Nets
Either there is the Dwight Howard Blockbuster Trade or there is not. But even then: The Nets have to do something to please their star they still have to convince to stay. They - like the Magic - have to show him (and their russian boss) the ability to perform.
Chances of Trades: 90%
3. Portland Trailblazers
This is a rather unpleasant thing: The Blazers are in constraint to do something due to their lack of recent success. They are the best bid for an bad trade in the last second.
CoT: 95%
4. L.A. Lakers
They have to do something due to their lack of competition for the title this year. Pau Gasol is the mein trade target, they are searching a capable PG, and they are still in the mix for D-12.
CoT: 90%
5. Houston Rockets
The Rockets still have a banged up, unfinished roster. They are in the hunt for Dwight and Pau as well. They have disgruntled stars (Scola, Martin) and Players to get rid of (Thabeet, Flynn, T. Williams). They should get involved on trade day this or that way.
CoT: 80%
6. Minnesota Timberwolves
Then want to dump Beasley, and maybe try their luck to get Gasol to pair him with spanish wunderkind Rubio. They also have a lot of other trade assets.
CoT: 75%
7. New Orleans Hornets
See the enduring Chris Kaman Trade considerations. There should be some moves to prepare the franchise for its future.
CoT: 75%
8. Atlanta Hawks
See the remaining interest in moving Kirk Hinrich. Their is some chatter about Josh Smith trying to demand a trade, but i don't believe in that one.
CoT: 70%
9. Indiana Pacers
Word is out that the Pacers want to trade despite their very positive overall situation right now. They want Jamal Crawford, Ray Allen or Chris Kaman for the right deal, to complement their roster for a deep playoff run.
CoT: 55%
10. Washington Wizards
The Wizards have such a disappointing season that the natural thought would be, that there should be a move right now. They wanna get rid of Andray Blatche, but can't find a taker. McGee or Young could be in the mix too. We will see if they give up their young core already to make a second rebuild attempt.
CoT: 40%
+ 7 more candidates:
Cleveland Cavaliers are said to shop Ramon Sessions and Antawn Jamison. CoT: 45%
Charlotte Bobcats are said to shop Boris Diaw. Maybe they get him somewhere through a 3 team deal during the deadline. CoT: 45%
Milwaukee Bucks are said to shop Stephen Jackson, but find no taker. Same game like with Diaw. I personally don't believe in the Bogut trade hype. CoT: 30%
Sacramento Kings are said to shop J.J. Hickson. They actually should find a suitor if they really wanto to. CoT: 25%
Golden State Warriors are said to remain interested in a D-12 rental and if not, maybe a Monta Ellis deal?! I don't believe so. CoT: 10%
Toronto Raptors are said to shop Jose Calderon. Again, I don't believe so. CoT: 10%
and finally... The Boston Celtics are always good for a surprise at the deadline... Rajon Rondo? One of the oldies? Acquiring a new big man? CoT: 25%
Either there is a Dwight Howard Blockbuster Trade or there is not. But even then: The Magic will have to make a (big) move, to show Howard that they are willing to move their roster for him anytime. Despite that, it's their last chance to try to form a good team around their beast in the middle, and the last chance to convince the guy to stay.
Chances of Trades: 99%
2. New Jersey Nets
Either there is the Dwight Howard Blockbuster Trade or there is not. But even then: The Nets have to do something to please their star they still have to convince to stay. They - like the Magic - have to show him (and their russian boss) the ability to perform.
Chances of Trades: 90%
3. Portland Trailblazers
This is a rather unpleasant thing: The Blazers are in constraint to do something due to their lack of recent success. They are the best bid for an bad trade in the last second.
CoT: 95%
4. L.A. Lakers
They have to do something due to their lack of competition for the title this year. Pau Gasol is the mein trade target, they are searching a capable PG, and they are still in the mix for D-12.
CoT: 90%
5. Houston Rockets
The Rockets still have a banged up, unfinished roster. They are in the hunt for Dwight and Pau as well. They have disgruntled stars (Scola, Martin) and Players to get rid of (Thabeet, Flynn, T. Williams). They should get involved on trade day this or that way.
CoT: 80%
6. Minnesota Timberwolves
Then want to dump Beasley, and maybe try their luck to get Gasol to pair him with spanish wunderkind Rubio. They also have a lot of other trade assets.
CoT: 75%
7. New Orleans Hornets
See the enduring Chris Kaman Trade considerations. There should be some moves to prepare the franchise for its future.
CoT: 75%
8. Atlanta Hawks
See the remaining interest in moving Kirk Hinrich. Their is some chatter about Josh Smith trying to demand a trade, but i don't believe in that one.
CoT: 70%
9. Indiana Pacers
Word is out that the Pacers want to trade despite their very positive overall situation right now. They want Jamal Crawford, Ray Allen or Chris Kaman for the right deal, to complement their roster for a deep playoff run.
CoT: 55%
10. Washington Wizards
The Wizards have such a disappointing season that the natural thought would be, that there should be a move right now. They wanna get rid of Andray Blatche, but can't find a taker. McGee or Young could be in the mix too. We will see if they give up their young core already to make a second rebuild attempt.
CoT: 40%
+ 7 more candidates:
Cleveland Cavaliers are said to shop Ramon Sessions and Antawn Jamison. CoT: 45%
Charlotte Bobcats are said to shop Boris Diaw. Maybe they get him somewhere through a 3 team deal during the deadline. CoT: 45%
Milwaukee Bucks are said to shop Stephen Jackson, but find no taker. Same game like with Diaw. I personally don't believe in the Bogut trade hype. CoT: 30%
Sacramento Kings are said to shop J.J. Hickson. They actually should find a suitor if they really wanto to. CoT: 25%
Golden State Warriors are said to remain interested in a D-12 rental and if not, maybe a Monta Ellis deal?! I don't believe so. CoT: 10%
Toronto Raptors are said to shop Jose Calderon. Again, I don't believe so. CoT: 10%
and finally... The Boston Celtics are always good for a surprise at the deadline... Rajon Rondo? One of the oldies? Acquiring a new big man? CoT: 25%
Mittwoch, 1. Februar 2012
Possible Chris Kaman trade scenarios
The Hornets officially have put Chris Kaman put on the trading block, and out of their rotation. Here are some possible trade scenarios, that could go down soon enough. We just have Kaman going out in one piece without addition, as a Hornets multiplayer trade would just be possible after mid february:
1.) Houston Rockets
Fit?
Good fit. Would play behind Dalembert and Scola, and have nearly a timeshare with them old guys, who are pretty injury prone too. Has a similiar unagitated style like them.
Possible Trade Chips?
Hasheem Thabeet, Jordan Hill, Jonny Flynn, Terrence Williams, Patrick Patterson, Goran Dragic, Courtney Lee, Marcus Morris, Chase Budinger, HOU 1st rounder 2012, NYK 1st rounder 2012, diverse 2nd rounders
Best trade NO?
Chris Kaman <--> Hasheem Thabeet + Jordan Hill + Patrick Patterson + Goran Dragic + one 1st rounder
Best trade HOU?
Chris Kaman <--> Hasheem Thabeet + Jordan Hill + Jonny Flynn
Story?
No team in the mix has that many trade assets like Houston can offer. They sound lately like the team who will have the best shot. With their hundret different options they will likely dictate the talks, and should match any offers other bidders can make. A comfortable position. NO meanwhile has to hope for other teams to raise the stock for Kaman to actually get some useful talents (Patterson, Dragic, Budinger) next to the trade chips, whom HOU actually just gets relived from while acquiring a nice big man (Thabeet, Flynn, Williams).
Chances?
80%
2.) Indiana Pacers
Fit?
Moderate fit. Would play behind Hibbert, West and Hansbrough in a pretty logjammed frontcourt. Would replace Amundson, Foster and co as the big white guy cleaning up the boards.
Possible Trade Chips?
Lou Amundson, Jeff Foster, Dahntay Jones, Jeff Pendergraph, George Hill, Tyler Hansbrough, IND 1st rounder 2012
Best trade NO?
Chris Kaman <--> George Hill + Lou Amundson + 1st rounder
Best trade IND?
Chris Kaman <--> Lou Amundson + Jeff Foster + Jeff Pendergraph + 2nd rounder
Story?
It's unlikely that the Pacers will give up Hill and his 1st rounder, and maybe even neither or them. It's even more unliky their beloved Tyler Hansbrough will be moved out of town. So if they are willing to sacrifice one of those 3 pieces there might be a slight chance to get Kaman. But as said: The Rockets could match that in an heartbeat.
Chances?
30%
3.) Portland Trailblazers
Fit?
Moderate fit. Would come behind often injured and grandpa old Camby, and see some minutes as third guy in the big man rotation. A long searched reliable big man from the bench.
Possible Trade Chips?
Luke Babbitt, Eliott Williams, Nolan Smith, Greg Oden, POR 1st rounder 2012
Best Trade Scenario NO?
Chris Kaman <--> Raymond Felton/Gerald Wallace + Nolan Smith
Best Trade Scenario POR?
Chris Kaman <--> ? + Luke Babbitt + Eliott Williams
Story?
This is an odd thing here. We just have it on our map because several sources suggest that one. To make the payrolls work the Blazers would have to give someone who has a big contract. Thing is they don't have anyone they really wanna get rid of (lucky them!). Camby maybe, would make most sense, because of his age. Then again, playing without Camby makes the team worst then it is right now. It would just make sense to lock Kaman in their squad before an other team makes the run. Then again, will NO want to have Camby in return? Wallace and Felton shouldn't be available for this trade. The only thing that works fine here are the young assets in Smith, Williams and Babbitt.
Chances?
15%
4.) San Antonio Spurs
Fit?
Good fit. The Spurs are soon in a position to need more size. Duncan grews older every fuckin' minute, and Blair & Splitter can't fill the role right now. Kaman would also make a good fit in Popovichs "old guys high BBall IQ" system.
Possible Trade Chips?
Richard Jefferson, Dejuan Blair/Tiago Splitter, Matt Bonner, James Anderson, Gary Neal, Danny Green, Cory Joseph, Spurs 1st rounder 2012
Best Trade Scenario NO?
Chris Kaman <--> Tiago Splitter + Matt Bonner + James Anderson + Gary Neal + 1st rounder
Best Trade Scenario Spurs?
Chris Kaman <--> Richard Jefferson + Dejuan Blair + Tiago Splitter + Danny Green + 1st rounder
Story?
If you think it from the right way, this one could make sense and has a possibility to happen. If the Hornets are prepared to take the nasty contract of Jefferson, and the Spurs are ready to give up some of their young, good assets this could work. The Hornets would accept Jefferson (and proberbly amnesty him later) to get Blair, Splitter, Green and a 1st rounder - all of them good people to rebuild with. The Spurs though have with Kaman a proper big man next to Duncan, Ginobili and Parker who they can rock the playoffs with one or two last times. Yes, we admit: This one sounds pretty edgy, but who knows how the world rolls right?
Chances?
40%
5.) Golden State Warriors
Fit?
Pretty good. With Kwame brown injured, and Biedrins and Udoh struggling most of the days, Kaman would be the man in the middle the Warriors are searching for desperately.
Possible Trade Chips?
Monta Ellis, Andris Biedrins, Ekpe Udoh, Brandon Rush, Klay Thompson, Jeremy Tyler, Charles Jenkins, High 2nd rounder
Best Trade Scenario NO?
Chris Kaman <--> Monta Ellis
or
Chris Kaman <--> Andris Biedrins + Ekpe Udoh + Klay Thompson + the 2nd rounder
Best Trade Scenario GSW?
Chris Kaman <--> Andris Biedrins + Brandon Rush + Jeremy Tyler + the 2nd rounder
Story?
The Warriors are simply in depp need of a big man, and that brings them on the table, even if Kaman not really fits into their idea of a big strong, defense orientated, young C. The Warriors would have to decide if they wanna part with some of their talents (Thompson, Udoh), and possible could unload the nasty contract of Biedrins with that move. Then again: Why would NO take that one? For 2 lottery disappointments? With a lot of luck GS would get that through, but i doubt it. The other possibility mentioned would be to trade up Monta Ellis straight up for Kaman, but GS would be plain stupid to do so, and on the other hand, the Hornets don't need a guy like Ellis next to Gordon right now + is in the market for young talent and picks.
Chances?
30%
6.) Cleveland Cavaliers
Fit?
Unnecessary. Cleveland is loaded with Verajao, Jamison and Thompson in the frontcourt. I'm not sure why they wanna make a run at Kaman.
Possible Trade Chips?
Antawn Jamison, Daniel Gibson, Ramon Sessions, Omri Casspi, Christian Eyenga, Alonzo Gee, Semih Erden, Luke Harangody, Samardo Samuels, 2 early 2nd rounders
Best Trade Scenario NO?
Chris Kaman <--> Daniel Gibson + Ramon Sessions + Omri Casspi + one 2nd rounder
Best Trade Scenario CLE?
Chris Kaman <--> Antawn Jamison + Ramon Sessions + Semih Erden + Luke Harangody + both 2nd rounders
Story?
There is big story until now. I doubt that NO will take back Jamisons huge contract, even if it runs just through this year. They payroll would be pretty unbalanced here, if they also take back the other pieces. Without Jamison in it the Cavs simply won't do the trade. Though, one has to admit: Next to Houston they have the most interesting young pieces to give up.
Chances?
25%
7.) Atlanta Hawks
Fit?
Pretty good. After Horford went down for the rest of the season the Hawks would get their big man as rental. Though he does not really fit into the system of attractive bball the Hawks are playing.
Possible Trade Chips?
Marvin Williams, Kirk Hinrich, Zaza Pachulia, 1st rounder 2012
Best Trade Scenario NO?
Chris Kaman <-> Marvin Williams/Kirk Hinrich + Zaza Pachulia
Best Trade Scenario ATL?
Non-existent.
Story?
There is just a story because the Hawks need to replace Horford for the season. Besides that, there is not much to chat about. The Hawks payroll scenario simply does not allow the Hawks to make a trade offer, that make them not give up too much.
Chances?
5%
8.) Boston Celtics
Fit?
Pretty good. The Celtics need a new big man in town, and Kaman would provide them with the skills they need.
Possible Trade Chips?
Jermaine O'Neal, Chris Wilcox, Avery Bradley, JaJuan Johnson, Greg Stiesma, E'Twaun Moore, 2 x 1st rounder 2012
Best Trade Scenario NO?
Chris Kaman <--> Jermaine O'Neal + Avery Bradley + JaJuan Johnson + Greg Stiesma + 1 st rounder
Best Trade Scenario BOS?
Chris Kaman <--> Jermaine O'Neal + Chris Wilcox + Jajuan Johnson + E'Twaun Moore + 1 st rounder
Story?
The Celtics actully want to wait until Kaman is free agent, and then take a shot at him. They already decided to not part with their young pieces, as far as you can hear. If they should decide differently though, they could pull off an offer, that would interest the Hornets. Especially as they have 2 1st rounders around pick 20 to offer.
Chances?
10%
1.) Houston Rockets
Fit?
Good fit. Would play behind Dalembert and Scola, and have nearly a timeshare with them old guys, who are pretty injury prone too. Has a similiar unagitated style like them.
Possible Trade Chips?
Hasheem Thabeet, Jordan Hill, Jonny Flynn, Terrence Williams, Patrick Patterson, Goran Dragic, Courtney Lee, Marcus Morris, Chase Budinger, HOU 1st rounder 2012, NYK 1st rounder 2012, diverse 2nd rounders
Best trade NO?
Chris Kaman <--> Hasheem Thabeet + Jordan Hill + Patrick Patterson + Goran Dragic + one 1st rounder
Best trade HOU?
Chris Kaman <--> Hasheem Thabeet + Jordan Hill + Jonny Flynn
Story?
No team in the mix has that many trade assets like Houston can offer. They sound lately like the team who will have the best shot. With their hundret different options they will likely dictate the talks, and should match any offers other bidders can make. A comfortable position. NO meanwhile has to hope for other teams to raise the stock for Kaman to actually get some useful talents (Patterson, Dragic, Budinger) next to the trade chips, whom HOU actually just gets relived from while acquiring a nice big man (Thabeet, Flynn, Williams).
Chances?
80%
2.) Indiana Pacers
Fit?
Moderate fit. Would play behind Hibbert, West and Hansbrough in a pretty logjammed frontcourt. Would replace Amundson, Foster and co as the big white guy cleaning up the boards.
Possible Trade Chips?
Lou Amundson, Jeff Foster, Dahntay Jones, Jeff Pendergraph, George Hill, Tyler Hansbrough, IND 1st rounder 2012
Best trade NO?
Chris Kaman <--> George Hill + Lou Amundson + 1st rounder
Best trade IND?
Chris Kaman <--> Lou Amundson + Jeff Foster + Jeff Pendergraph + 2nd rounder
Story?
It's unlikely that the Pacers will give up Hill and his 1st rounder, and maybe even neither or them. It's even more unliky their beloved Tyler Hansbrough will be moved out of town. So if they are willing to sacrifice one of those 3 pieces there might be a slight chance to get Kaman. But as said: The Rockets could match that in an heartbeat.
Chances?
30%
3.) Portland Trailblazers
Fit?
Moderate fit. Would come behind often injured and grandpa old Camby, and see some minutes as third guy in the big man rotation. A long searched reliable big man from the bench.
Possible Trade Chips?
Luke Babbitt, Eliott Williams, Nolan Smith, Greg Oden, POR 1st rounder 2012
Best Trade Scenario NO?
Chris Kaman <--> Raymond Felton/Gerald Wallace + Nolan Smith
Best Trade Scenario POR?
Chris Kaman <--> ? + Luke Babbitt + Eliott Williams
Story?
This is an odd thing here. We just have it on our map because several sources suggest that one. To make the payrolls work the Blazers would have to give someone who has a big contract. Thing is they don't have anyone they really wanna get rid of (lucky them!). Camby maybe, would make most sense, because of his age. Then again, playing without Camby makes the team worst then it is right now. It would just make sense to lock Kaman in their squad before an other team makes the run. Then again, will NO want to have Camby in return? Wallace and Felton shouldn't be available for this trade. The only thing that works fine here are the young assets in Smith, Williams and Babbitt.
Chances?
15%
4.) San Antonio Spurs
Fit?
Good fit. The Spurs are soon in a position to need more size. Duncan grews older every fuckin' minute, and Blair & Splitter can't fill the role right now. Kaman would also make a good fit in Popovichs "old guys high BBall IQ" system.
Possible Trade Chips?
Richard Jefferson, Dejuan Blair/Tiago Splitter, Matt Bonner, James Anderson, Gary Neal, Danny Green, Cory Joseph, Spurs 1st rounder 2012
Best Trade Scenario NO?
Chris Kaman <--> Tiago Splitter + Matt Bonner + James Anderson + Gary Neal + 1st rounder
Best Trade Scenario Spurs?
Chris Kaman <--> Richard Jefferson + Dejuan Blair + Tiago Splitter + Danny Green + 1st rounder
Story?
If you think it from the right way, this one could make sense and has a possibility to happen. If the Hornets are prepared to take the nasty contract of Jefferson, and the Spurs are ready to give up some of their young, good assets this could work. The Hornets would accept Jefferson (and proberbly amnesty him later) to get Blair, Splitter, Green and a 1st rounder - all of them good people to rebuild with. The Spurs though have with Kaman a proper big man next to Duncan, Ginobili and Parker who they can rock the playoffs with one or two last times. Yes, we admit: This one sounds pretty edgy, but who knows how the world rolls right?
Chances?
40%
5.) Golden State Warriors
Fit?
Pretty good. With Kwame brown injured, and Biedrins and Udoh struggling most of the days, Kaman would be the man in the middle the Warriors are searching for desperately.
Possible Trade Chips?
Monta Ellis, Andris Biedrins, Ekpe Udoh, Brandon Rush, Klay Thompson, Jeremy Tyler, Charles Jenkins, High 2nd rounder
Best Trade Scenario NO?
Chris Kaman <--> Monta Ellis
or
Chris Kaman <--> Andris Biedrins + Ekpe Udoh + Klay Thompson + the 2nd rounder
Best Trade Scenario GSW?
Chris Kaman <--> Andris Biedrins + Brandon Rush + Jeremy Tyler + the 2nd rounder
Story?
The Warriors are simply in depp need of a big man, and that brings them on the table, even if Kaman not really fits into their idea of a big strong, defense orientated, young C. The Warriors would have to decide if they wanna part with some of their talents (Thompson, Udoh), and possible could unload the nasty contract of Biedrins with that move. Then again: Why would NO take that one? For 2 lottery disappointments? With a lot of luck GS would get that through, but i doubt it. The other possibility mentioned would be to trade up Monta Ellis straight up for Kaman, but GS would be plain stupid to do so, and on the other hand, the Hornets don't need a guy like Ellis next to Gordon right now + is in the market for young talent and picks.
Chances?
30%
6.) Cleveland Cavaliers
Fit?
Unnecessary. Cleveland is loaded with Verajao, Jamison and Thompson in the frontcourt. I'm not sure why they wanna make a run at Kaman.
Possible Trade Chips?
Antawn Jamison, Daniel Gibson, Ramon Sessions, Omri Casspi, Christian Eyenga, Alonzo Gee, Semih Erden, Luke Harangody, Samardo Samuels, 2 early 2nd rounders
Best Trade Scenario NO?
Chris Kaman <--> Daniel Gibson + Ramon Sessions + Omri Casspi + one 2nd rounder
Best Trade Scenario CLE?
Chris Kaman <--> Antawn Jamison + Ramon Sessions + Semih Erden + Luke Harangody + both 2nd rounders
Story?
There is big story until now. I doubt that NO will take back Jamisons huge contract, even if it runs just through this year. They payroll would be pretty unbalanced here, if they also take back the other pieces. Without Jamison in it the Cavs simply won't do the trade. Though, one has to admit: Next to Houston they have the most interesting young pieces to give up.
Chances?
25%
7.) Atlanta Hawks
Fit?
Pretty good. After Horford went down for the rest of the season the Hawks would get their big man as rental. Though he does not really fit into the system of attractive bball the Hawks are playing.
Possible Trade Chips?
Marvin Williams, Kirk Hinrich, Zaza Pachulia, 1st rounder 2012
Best Trade Scenario NO?
Chris Kaman <-> Marvin Williams/Kirk Hinrich + Zaza Pachulia
Best Trade Scenario ATL?
Non-existent.
Story?
There is just a story because the Hawks need to replace Horford for the season. Besides that, there is not much to chat about. The Hawks payroll scenario simply does not allow the Hawks to make a trade offer, that make them not give up too much.
Chances?
5%
8.) Boston Celtics
Fit?
Pretty good. The Celtics need a new big man in town, and Kaman would provide them with the skills they need.
Possible Trade Chips?
Jermaine O'Neal, Chris Wilcox, Avery Bradley, JaJuan Johnson, Greg Stiesma, E'Twaun Moore, 2 x 1st rounder 2012
Best Trade Scenario NO?
Chris Kaman <--> Jermaine O'Neal + Avery Bradley + JaJuan Johnson + Greg Stiesma + 1 st rounder
Best Trade Scenario BOS?
Chris Kaman <--> Jermaine O'Neal + Chris Wilcox + Jajuan Johnson + E'Twaun Moore + 1 st rounder
Story?
The Celtics actully want to wait until Kaman is free agent, and then take a shot at him. They already decided to not part with their young pieces, as far as you can hear. If they should decide differently though, they could pull off an offer, that would interest the Hornets. Especially as they have 2 1st rounders around pick 20 to offer.
Chances?
10%
Dienstag, 31. Januar 2012
Fantasy Teams - #1 - Altoona Hawks
Guards
Ty Lawson
Talkin' money?
4,86 $ -> 7,53 $
Up/Downside?
+ 2,67 $
Grade?
A
Original Thought?
Lawson is the new Go-to-Guy in town. He comes into the magic 3rd year, and George Karl loves him. He is expected to step up big time and there is next to no doubt that he will raise his worth a lot. One of the few most-buys here.
Reality?
Everything happened the way we expected it. Lawson did a great job.
Future Perspective?
This year, there may be not that much upside anymore. But: For the next seasons it's not excluded, that he can rock the spot as an franchise star.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Toney Douglas
Talkin' money?
3,89 $ -> 1,80 $
Up/Downside?
- 2,09 $
Grade?
F
Original Thought?
Douglas is the only PG the Knicks have in their roster. Bibby is too old, and was shitty already last year, B. Diddy will step in in 2 months earliest. There is no concurrence, and Douglas is expected to have a great year in his 3rd.
Reality?
Douglas fucked up big time. The foot steps were too huge for him. Even without somebody who could steal his job he was able to fall out of the rotation for a while.
Future Perspective?
Right now it doesn't look good. Davis is returning soon, and Douglas remains an on and off player. Which doesn't mean that we will bet on that horse again next year.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Gerald Henderson
Talkin' money?
$ 3,10 -> 5,09 $
Up/Downside?
+ 1,99 $
Grade?
B+
Original Thought?
Henderson made a huge step forward under new coach Silas, who loves to bring the potential out of his young players. This year is supposed to be Hendersons outbreak. He is a legitimate starter.
Reality?
Everything happened as planned. Henderson had is outcome as an efficient SG, not a star type, but very solid.
Future Perspective?
There is not much upside at this point. He is plain solid, and will continue his production as projected. I don't see any more upside than this in the future too.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Brandon Knight
Talkin' money?
2,80 $ -> 3,05 $
Up/Downside?
+ 0,25 $
Grade?
C+
Original Thought?
Brandon Knight is cheap at his position #8 of the draft. He should immediatly see minutes, maybe soon as starter. The Pistons roster is pretty mixed up, and they need a new advisor in the backcourt, and generally a new guy in town they can trust. Knight happens to be that guy.
Reality?
Kind of what we expected, just not that fast as we wished. He gets better every week, and should be a cornerstone in that fantasyteam until the end.
Future Perspective?
He is still a hot pickup, so every team should go for it, if not already happened. As a rookie the next seasons seems naturally like the golden age for any user you owns him.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Jarrett Jack
Talkin' money?
2,74 $ -> 7,23 $
Up/Downside?
+ 4,49 $
Grade?
A +
Original Thought?
Jarrett Jack is the only legitimate PG in the Hornets squad, and ready to step up after being a backup PG for the last seasons. Because of the lack of good players in NO he should see plenty of offense possibilities, and can emerge as a go-to-guy. All this given, the prize is a joke.
Reality?
Jack turned out to big even better than originally thought. The main reason is because his backcourt partner Gordon was injured all the time, Jack became all the run he needed to step up.
Future Perspective?
There is no higher ceiling than this right now. It's time to sell high as soon as Gordon is back on track. For future purposes it's worth recognizing how good Jack can be.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Jeff Teague
Talkin' money?
1,66 $ -> 5,90 $
Up/Downside?
+ 4,24 $
Grade?
A +
Original Thought?
With kirk Hinrich out for the first month Teague is the only legitimate PG on the squad. He has to step up, and - as the hype is big on him after last years playoff performance - everybody expects him to do so. The prize tag here is beyond ridiculous.
Reality?
Teague brought what we expected him to do. Period.
Future Perspective?
Teague still has kind of upside, but not this year. As soon as Hinrich returns (and is not traded, see entry from jan 13th), he will see a minute cut. He remains worth a look for the next seasons.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Forwards
Danilo Gallinari
Talkin' money?
5,48 $ -> 7,63 $
Up/Downside?
+ 2,15 $
Grade?
A
Original Thought?
Gallinari is the new Nr. 1 option in the offense of the Nuggets. With first Melo, and now Wilson Chandler and J.R. Smith out of town he should see plenty of minutes and offensive action, and shoot the lights out in Denver. His prize is moderate.
Reality?
It did happen, what we expected. Gallo has enough self-confidence to step up enormiously. He had no injury problems, which is really important here.
Future Perspective?
There is not that much upside from this point on. there will be times he could break the 9 Mil mark maybe, but that's about it. If he sticks with this prize during the next years he won't be that interesting given his injury history alone.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Boris Diaw
Talkin' money?
5,19 $ -> 4,27 $
Up/Downside?
- 0,92 $
Grade?
D-
Original Thought?
The Bobcats are unbeliebably thin at the frontcourt. Boris Diaw is literally the only big man that is worth something, and he will see that plenty of playing time, that he is a nice shot at that prize.
Reality?
Diaw indeed had his moments. But in the end, he didn't had the right moral and working ethics (on a team, that will compete for the Top 3 lottery picks). He was inconsistent and even got benched at the end by coach Silas. Something we didn't see coming.
Future Perspective?
Hard to say if Diaw gets his feet back on the ground this year. It will remain a gambling on him, also in the next seasons. Especially if you look at his age and injury concerns.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Dejuan Blair
Talkin' money?
3,78 $ -> 3,96 $
Up/Downside?
+ 0,18 $
Grade?
C
Original Thought?
Blair is coming into his 3rd year and slowly and steadily overtaking the frontcourt from Tim "I get exhausted" Duncan. We are waiting for his complete breakout. This year maybe?
Reality?
Blair is nice, but that's about it. He has his few shiny moments, but all in all he didn't convince. He remains still an role player at this moment. He didn't bring in nearly any upside.
Future Perspective?
We are still waiting. We doubt he will make it this year, but for the next season the old hope for his breakout remains upright.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Paul George
Talkin' money?
2,60 $ -> 4,17 $
Up/Downside?
+ 1,57 $
Grade?
B
Original Thought?
George comes into his 2nd season and is expected to have an high rising, with his huge talent packed. The Pacers love him so much, they cleared the SG spot for him as a starter.
Reality?
Indeed George likes where he is at now. He is on his best way up the ladder, and right now a pretty solid wingman.
Future Perspective?
He will rise steadily. This season a bit more, next season maybe even into the area of 7 Mill. Remained to be strongly monitored.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Derrick Favors
Talkin' money?
2,39 $ -> 2,44 $
Up/Downside?
+ 0,05 $
Grade?
C
Original Thought?
Favors was a the latest and last pickup for this team, mainly because news came out, that he will be a starter for the beginning of the season. He has tons of upside, and with that news it seems clear that he needs to get into the roster.
Reality?
Favors indeed has some shiny moments in the first games of the season, but actually never got the rhythm going. He remains where he started at, and it becomes pretty clear, that he is stuck in the rotation behind to many high quality big man.
Future Perspective?
Is bright like nobodys business. He needs to get more playing time, realistically that will be just possible with a trade either of him or one of his teammates. From that point on expect him to be a beast fantasy wise.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Kenneth Faried
Talkin' money?
0,50 $ -> 0,50 $
Up/Downside?
+- 0 $
Grade?
E
Original Thought?
Faried is a NBA-ready player,a hustler, who can start doing this from day 1 in the league. Denver has a gapping hole at PF with Kenyon Martin out of town. Farieds only opponents for playing time are the always-injured Birdman, and the huge disappointment Al Harrington. We saw Faried getting a playing time of around 20 minutes here, for minimal wage.
Reality?
Faried simply didn't crack the rotation. If he did (3 times), he was good. But he is not considered to be NBA-ready by now. Harrington additionally showed some game surprisingly, and Chris Andersen was not that often injured as we expected. Also, Nêne did see playing time at PF, while Mozgov played the C.
Future Perspective?
Is bright like the heaven. Faried will be a superb NBA-roleplayer digging for boeard and defense. My guess is next year we see him cracking the rotation at latest, if not already at the end of this season (especially if someone goes down). 3 years from now he will be a solid rock. He will be picked up again next season no matter what.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Center
Nêne Hilario
Talkin' money?
6,86 $ -> 5,99 $
Up/Downside?
- 0,87 $
Grade?
D-
Original Thought?
Nêne had an moderate prize for being one of the best C in the league. With losing Chandler, Martin and Smith in the offseason Hilario should have to step up even more right now, and should put up some pretty decent numbers this season.
Reality?
Nêne soon was injured for 3 of the first 9 games. That already made the pick senseless. Besides that, he didn't get into the groove we expected from him. Just since middle of january he started to play decent. Since then he is a good pickup.
Future Perspective?
Right now, he is a brilliant pickup. He is cheap, and started to pick up his pace.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Talkin' money?
$ -> $
Up/Downside?
$
Grade?
Original Thought?
Reality?
Future Perspective?
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Talkin' money?
$ -> $
Up/Downside?
$
Grade?
Original Thought?
Reality?
Future Perspective?
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Ty Lawson
Talkin' money?
4,86 $ -> 7,53 $
Up/Downside?
+ 2,67 $
Grade?
A
Original Thought?
Lawson is the new Go-to-Guy in town. He comes into the magic 3rd year, and George Karl loves him. He is expected to step up big time and there is next to no doubt that he will raise his worth a lot. One of the few most-buys here.
Reality?
Everything happened the way we expected it. Lawson did a great job.
Future Perspective?
This year, there may be not that much upside anymore. But: For the next seasons it's not excluded, that he can rock the spot as an franchise star.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Toney Douglas
Talkin' money?
3,89 $ -> 1,80 $
Up/Downside?
- 2,09 $
Grade?
F
Original Thought?
Douglas is the only PG the Knicks have in their roster. Bibby is too old, and was shitty already last year, B. Diddy will step in in 2 months earliest. There is no concurrence, and Douglas is expected to have a great year in his 3rd.
Reality?
Douglas fucked up big time. The foot steps were too huge for him. Even without somebody who could steal his job he was able to fall out of the rotation for a while.
Future Perspective?
Right now it doesn't look good. Davis is returning soon, and Douglas remains an on and off player. Which doesn't mean that we will bet on that horse again next year.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Gerald Henderson
Talkin' money?
$ 3,10 -> 5,09 $
Up/Downside?
+ 1,99 $
Grade?
B+
Original Thought?
Henderson made a huge step forward under new coach Silas, who loves to bring the potential out of his young players. This year is supposed to be Hendersons outbreak. He is a legitimate starter.
Reality?
Everything happened as planned. Henderson had is outcome as an efficient SG, not a star type, but very solid.
Future Perspective?
There is not much upside at this point. He is plain solid, and will continue his production as projected. I don't see any more upside than this in the future too.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Brandon Knight
Talkin' money?
2,80 $ -> 3,05 $
Up/Downside?
+ 0,25 $
Grade?
C+
Original Thought?
Brandon Knight is cheap at his position #8 of the draft. He should immediatly see minutes, maybe soon as starter. The Pistons roster is pretty mixed up, and they need a new advisor in the backcourt, and generally a new guy in town they can trust. Knight happens to be that guy.
Reality?
Kind of what we expected, just not that fast as we wished. He gets better every week, and should be a cornerstone in that fantasyteam until the end.
Future Perspective?
He is still a hot pickup, so every team should go for it, if not already happened. As a rookie the next seasons seems naturally like the golden age for any user you owns him.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Jarrett Jack
Talkin' money?
2,74 $ -> 7,23 $
Up/Downside?
+ 4,49 $
Grade?
A +
Original Thought?
Jarrett Jack is the only legitimate PG in the Hornets squad, and ready to step up after being a backup PG for the last seasons. Because of the lack of good players in NO he should see plenty of offense possibilities, and can emerge as a go-to-guy. All this given, the prize is a joke.
Reality?
Jack turned out to big even better than originally thought. The main reason is because his backcourt partner Gordon was injured all the time, Jack became all the run he needed to step up.
Future Perspective?
There is no higher ceiling than this right now. It's time to sell high as soon as Gordon is back on track. For future purposes it's worth recognizing how good Jack can be.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Jeff Teague
Talkin' money?
1,66 $ -> 5,90 $
Up/Downside?
+ 4,24 $
Grade?
A +
Original Thought?
With kirk Hinrich out for the first month Teague is the only legitimate PG on the squad. He has to step up, and - as the hype is big on him after last years playoff performance - everybody expects him to do so. The prize tag here is beyond ridiculous.
Reality?
Teague brought what we expected him to do. Period.
Future Perspective?
Teague still has kind of upside, but not this year. As soon as Hinrich returns (and is not traded, see entry from jan 13th), he will see a minute cut. He remains worth a look for the next seasons.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Forwards
Danilo Gallinari
Talkin' money?
5,48 $ -> 7,63 $
Up/Downside?
+ 2,15 $
Grade?
A
Original Thought?
Gallinari is the new Nr. 1 option in the offense of the Nuggets. With first Melo, and now Wilson Chandler and J.R. Smith out of town he should see plenty of minutes and offensive action, and shoot the lights out in Denver. His prize is moderate.
Reality?
It did happen, what we expected. Gallo has enough self-confidence to step up enormiously. He had no injury problems, which is really important here.
Future Perspective?
There is not that much upside from this point on. there will be times he could break the 9 Mil mark maybe, but that's about it. If he sticks with this prize during the next years he won't be that interesting given his injury history alone.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Boris Diaw
Talkin' money?
5,19 $ -> 4,27 $
Up/Downside?
- 0,92 $
Grade?
D-
Original Thought?
The Bobcats are unbeliebably thin at the frontcourt. Boris Diaw is literally the only big man that is worth something, and he will see that plenty of playing time, that he is a nice shot at that prize.
Reality?
Diaw indeed had his moments. But in the end, he didn't had the right moral and working ethics (on a team, that will compete for the Top 3 lottery picks). He was inconsistent and even got benched at the end by coach Silas. Something we didn't see coming.
Future Perspective?
Hard to say if Diaw gets his feet back on the ground this year. It will remain a gambling on him, also in the next seasons. Especially if you look at his age and injury concerns.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Dejuan Blair
Talkin' money?
3,78 $ -> 3,96 $
Up/Downside?
+ 0,18 $
Grade?
C
Original Thought?
Blair is coming into his 3rd year and slowly and steadily overtaking the frontcourt from Tim "I get exhausted" Duncan. We are waiting for his complete breakout. This year maybe?
Reality?
Blair is nice, but that's about it. He has his few shiny moments, but all in all he didn't convince. He remains still an role player at this moment. He didn't bring in nearly any upside.
Future Perspective?
We are still waiting. We doubt he will make it this year, but for the next season the old hope for his breakout remains upright.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Paul George
Talkin' money?
2,60 $ -> 4,17 $
Up/Downside?
+ 1,57 $
Grade?
B
Original Thought?
George comes into his 2nd season and is expected to have an high rising, with his huge talent packed. The Pacers love him so much, they cleared the SG spot for him as a starter.
Reality?
Indeed George likes where he is at now. He is on his best way up the ladder, and right now a pretty solid wingman.
Future Perspective?
He will rise steadily. This season a bit more, next season maybe even into the area of 7 Mill. Remained to be strongly monitored.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Derrick Favors
Talkin' money?
2,39 $ -> 2,44 $
Up/Downside?
+ 0,05 $
Grade?
C
Original Thought?
Favors was a the latest and last pickup for this team, mainly because news came out, that he will be a starter for the beginning of the season. He has tons of upside, and with that news it seems clear that he needs to get into the roster.
Reality?
Favors indeed has some shiny moments in the first games of the season, but actually never got the rhythm going. He remains where he started at, and it becomes pretty clear, that he is stuck in the rotation behind to many high quality big man.
Future Perspective?
Is bright like nobodys business. He needs to get more playing time, realistically that will be just possible with a trade either of him or one of his teammates. From that point on expect him to be a beast fantasy wise.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Kenneth Faried
Talkin' money?
0,50 $ -> 0,50 $
Up/Downside?
+- 0 $
Grade?
E
Original Thought?
Faried is a NBA-ready player,a hustler, who can start doing this from day 1 in the league. Denver has a gapping hole at PF with Kenyon Martin out of town. Farieds only opponents for playing time are the always-injured Birdman, and the huge disappointment Al Harrington. We saw Faried getting a playing time of around 20 minutes here, for minimal wage.
Reality?
Faried simply didn't crack the rotation. If he did (3 times), he was good. But he is not considered to be NBA-ready by now. Harrington additionally showed some game surprisingly, and Chris Andersen was not that often injured as we expected. Also, Nêne did see playing time at PF, while Mozgov played the C.
Future Perspective?
Is bright like the heaven. Faried will be a superb NBA-roleplayer digging for boeard and defense. My guess is next year we see him cracking the rotation at latest, if not already at the end of this season (especially if someone goes down). 3 years from now he will be a solid rock. He will be picked up again next season no matter what.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
///////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Center
Nêne Hilario
Talkin' money?
6,86 $ -> 5,99 $
Up/Downside?
- 0,87 $
Grade?
D-
Original Thought?
Nêne had an moderate prize for being one of the best C in the league. With losing Chandler, Martin and Smith in the offseason Hilario should have to step up even more right now, and should put up some pretty decent numbers this season.
Reality?
Nêne soon was injured for 3 of the first 9 games. That already made the pick senseless. Besides that, he didn't get into the groove we expected from him. Just since middle of january he started to play decent. Since then he is a good pickup.
Future Perspective?
Right now, he is a brilliant pickup. He is cheap, and started to pick up his pace.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Talkin' money?
$ -> $
Up/Downside?
$
Grade?
Original Thought?
Reality?
Future Perspective?
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Talkin' money?
$ -> $
Up/Downside?
$
Grade?
Original Thought?
Reality?
Future Perspective?
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Freitag, 13. Januar 2012
10 possibilities for the Hawks to trade Kirk Hinrich for an Al Horford substitute
After losing Al Horford for the remainder of the regular season the Hawks may plan on using Kirk Hinrich as Trading Chip to acquire a new big man. Here are 10 possible scenarios. All of them are build on matching salary switchs.
1.) L.A.Lakers
Trade: Kirk Hinrich <---> Josh McRoberts + Steve Blake
Hawks: grade C+
They acquire a pretty solide big man, who is still more a PF as a C. Blake is also a nice addition at PG. The negative site of the trade: Both have long contracts, the Hawks have to carry out.
Lakers: grade A
With Hinrich the Lakers finally acquire an elite veteran defense PG with high Bball IQ, who can be the man next to Kobe for 3 or 4 more years. They can sign him to an extension in summer for a moderate price. Additionally they get rid of the terrible mistake Blake and his contract. McRoberts is not a necessary guy in the rotation after Bynum is back.
Chances/fit: 80%
2.) Milwaukee Bucks
Trade: Kirk Hinrich <---> Drew Gooden + Larry Sanders/Tobias Harris
Hawks: D-
Gooden can play C, and Sanders or Harris would be quiet nice talent material. Though the contract of Gooden is a farce and forces the Hawks to have him on their payroll in a huge way for several years. That's not worth it.
Bucks: B
The Bucks simply get rid of Gooden and his hilarious contract. The have to sacrifice one young talent for that effort. Hinrich would be an nice mentor for Jennings for the rest of the season and will probably leave in the summer.
Chances/fit: 30%
3.) New Orleans Hornets
Trade: Kirk Hinrich + Marvin Williams <---> Chris Kaman/Emeka Okafor + Greivis Vasquez/Dejuan Summers/Trey Johnson
Hawks: B+
Kaman or Okafor would be a pretty nice addition as replacement. The best the Hawks actually could get right now. Kaman makes more sense, as he would be a rental, Okafor would last to heavy on the payroll. Another player would come to make the money work, but would be fired right away i guess.
Hornets: C-
2 nice players come around for a rental (Kaman) or a huge contract (Okafor). That's one way to see it. Kaman though expressed interest in resigning, and Okafor is still a pretty good big man. Hinrich is not really needed in the rotation as veteran behind Jarrett Jack and Eric Gordon, and would probably walk in summer. And Williams contract is nasty and long.
Chances/fit: 50%
4.) New York Knicks
Trade: Kirk Hinrich <---> Josh Harrellson + Toney Douglas + Jared Jeffries + Jerome Jordan
Hawks: E
The idea here is, that the Hawks get quantity instead of quality. Little contracts to make the payrolls work. Hawks would also have to waive 3 of their non-guaranteed players (Stackhouse, Sloan, I. Johnson). They get 3 big men who are hardly able to contribute. Harrellson and Jordan could become interesting bigs, but not in the forseeable future. Toney Douglas would be the only capable player here, but he would just be the backup for Teague and is not the reason why the Hawks are looking for a trade.
Knicks: A
The Knicks would do that one in an heartbeat. Hinrich is exactly the player they would love to add, an elite defense first PG in the best age. They could sign him to an extension in summer. They can abandon Douglas as he just slipped out of the rotation recently. All the other guys are more or less garbage minutes player, who could be replaced by free agents easily.
Chances/fit: 5%
5.) Oklahoma City Thunder
Trade: Kirk Hinrich <---> Nazr Mohammed + Reggie Jackson
Hawks: C-
Mohammed is a guy who prooved that he can start as C, though his time is over since a while. He has an big contract to load on the shoulders. Not an ideal solution. Reggie Jackson would be a nice addition as young backup for Teague.
Thunder: B-
The Thunder get rid of Mohammed, and have to sacrifice their 1st rounder for that. Hinrich would be an one-season-mentor for Westbrook and Harden, as they would not be able to maintain his contract.
Chances/fit: 30%
6.) Philadelphia 76ers
Trade: Kirk Hinrich <---> Nikola Vucevic + Lou Williams
Hawks: B
The problem here is that the better player of both the Hawks would receive is the guard. Vucevic isn't ready to contribute, so this is not really an big move at C. Williams would be a nice player to get, though the Hawks would have to take his long-term contract with that decision.
76ers: E
It simply makes no real sense here: They ship off their 1st round pick, and a quality guard to get a rental. Hinrich would not stay behind Holiday as his mentor, and leave in summer.
Chances/fit: 5%
7.) Phoenix Suns
Trade: Kirk Hinrich <---> Channing Frye + Shannon Brown/Sebastian Telfair/Ronnie Price
Hawks: B-
Frye is a pretty flexible C, and would be an huge addition. They other player would just make the money work and be the garbage man behind Teague.
Suns: E
Loosing Frye for Hinrich makes no sense at all. What do they want with 2 veteran PGs? Hinrich wouldn't stay over summer.
Chances/fit: 5%
8.) Sacramento Kings
Trade: Kirk Hinrich <---> Jason Thompson/DeMarcus Cousins + Fernando Garcia
Hawks: C
This is a tough one. Would the Hawks want to gamble on big time talent Cousins while they have their best franchise situation since the Dikembe/Smithee/Mookie era? Some would say take him when he is available, a no-brainer. Could be locker room cancer. Thompson though doesn't have the potential like Cousins, is PF and not really worth the trade. Garcia would be nasty for the payroll.
Kings: C
Are they really willing to loose their big man talent Cousins? Nobody thinks so right now, but that could change every minute. Thompson though, and getting rid of the terrible Garcia contract would make totally sense. Hinrich would mentor Evans, Thornton and Fredette and leave the Kings in summer.
Chances/fit: 20%
9.) Toronto Raptors
Trade: Kirk Hinrich + 1st round pick <---> Amir Johnson + Jarryd Bayless
Hawks: B-
Getting Johnson would be a great relieve for defense and rebounding, Bayless also is an PG talent that can break out soon. Behind Teague he would probably not though. The only negative aspect here is that Johnson has a pretty huhe contract to load on the shoulders for some more years.
Raptors: D
The Raptors could use Hinrich to mentor and backup DeRozan defensely for the season, and even have a thought about getting rid of Calderon and his contract in summer finally and sign Heinrich as their new PG to an extension. The ATL 1st rounder would be a nice addition for their rebuilding process. The loss of Johnson though would weaken the lame frontcourt immensly.
Chances/fit: 40%
10.) Gorden State Warriors
Trade: Kirk Hinrich <---> Andris Biedrins
Hawks: C
This trade would work when they fire their 2 unguaranteed players Pargo and Stackhouse. Biedrins is a starting C since back in the days, though he proved that he will never be a elite one. His contract would be on the payroll next season too.
Warriors: C
As Kwame Brown just went down, the Ws will hardly get away more big man, and it would be stupid to do that. The thinking here is: Hinrich though would be a pretty good mentor for Curry, and replace him all the times when his ankle says goodbye.
Chances/fit: 15%
1.) L.A.Lakers
Trade: Kirk Hinrich <---> Josh McRoberts + Steve Blake
Hawks: grade C+
They acquire a pretty solide big man, who is still more a PF as a C. Blake is also a nice addition at PG. The negative site of the trade: Both have long contracts, the Hawks have to carry out.
Lakers: grade A
With Hinrich the Lakers finally acquire an elite veteran defense PG with high Bball IQ, who can be the man next to Kobe for 3 or 4 more years. They can sign him to an extension in summer for a moderate price. Additionally they get rid of the terrible mistake Blake and his contract. McRoberts is not a necessary guy in the rotation after Bynum is back.
Chances/fit: 80%
2.) Milwaukee Bucks
Trade: Kirk Hinrich <---> Drew Gooden + Larry Sanders/Tobias Harris
Hawks: D-
Gooden can play C, and Sanders or Harris would be quiet nice talent material. Though the contract of Gooden is a farce and forces the Hawks to have him on their payroll in a huge way for several years. That's not worth it.
Bucks: B
The Bucks simply get rid of Gooden and his hilarious contract. The have to sacrifice one young talent for that effort. Hinrich would be an nice mentor for Jennings for the rest of the season and will probably leave in the summer.
Chances/fit: 30%
3.) New Orleans Hornets
Trade: Kirk Hinrich + Marvin Williams <---> Chris Kaman/Emeka Okafor + Greivis Vasquez/Dejuan Summers/Trey Johnson
Hawks: B+
Kaman or Okafor would be a pretty nice addition as replacement. The best the Hawks actually could get right now. Kaman makes more sense, as he would be a rental, Okafor would last to heavy on the payroll. Another player would come to make the money work, but would be fired right away i guess.
Hornets: C-
2 nice players come around for a rental (Kaman) or a huge contract (Okafor). That's one way to see it. Kaman though expressed interest in resigning, and Okafor is still a pretty good big man. Hinrich is not really needed in the rotation as veteran behind Jarrett Jack and Eric Gordon, and would probably walk in summer. And Williams contract is nasty and long.
Chances/fit: 50%
4.) New York Knicks
Trade: Kirk Hinrich <---> Josh Harrellson + Toney Douglas + Jared Jeffries + Jerome Jordan
Hawks: E
The idea here is, that the Hawks get quantity instead of quality. Little contracts to make the payrolls work. Hawks would also have to waive 3 of their non-guaranteed players (Stackhouse, Sloan, I. Johnson). They get 3 big men who are hardly able to contribute. Harrellson and Jordan could become interesting bigs, but not in the forseeable future. Toney Douglas would be the only capable player here, but he would just be the backup for Teague and is not the reason why the Hawks are looking for a trade.
Knicks: A
The Knicks would do that one in an heartbeat. Hinrich is exactly the player they would love to add, an elite defense first PG in the best age. They could sign him to an extension in summer. They can abandon Douglas as he just slipped out of the rotation recently. All the other guys are more or less garbage minutes player, who could be replaced by free agents easily.
Chances/fit: 5%
5.) Oklahoma City Thunder
Trade: Kirk Hinrich <---> Nazr Mohammed + Reggie Jackson
Hawks: C-
Mohammed is a guy who prooved that he can start as C, though his time is over since a while. He has an big contract to load on the shoulders. Not an ideal solution. Reggie Jackson would be a nice addition as young backup for Teague.
Thunder: B-
The Thunder get rid of Mohammed, and have to sacrifice their 1st rounder for that. Hinrich would be an one-season-mentor for Westbrook and Harden, as they would not be able to maintain his contract.
Chances/fit: 30%
6.) Philadelphia 76ers
Trade: Kirk Hinrich <---> Nikola Vucevic + Lou Williams
Hawks: B
The problem here is that the better player of both the Hawks would receive is the guard. Vucevic isn't ready to contribute, so this is not really an big move at C. Williams would be a nice player to get, though the Hawks would have to take his long-term contract with that decision.
76ers: E
It simply makes no real sense here: They ship off their 1st round pick, and a quality guard to get a rental. Hinrich would not stay behind Holiday as his mentor, and leave in summer.
Chances/fit: 5%
7.) Phoenix Suns
Trade: Kirk Hinrich <---> Channing Frye + Shannon Brown/Sebastian Telfair/Ronnie Price
Hawks: B-
Frye is a pretty flexible C, and would be an huge addition. They other player would just make the money work and be the garbage man behind Teague.
Suns: E
Loosing Frye for Hinrich makes no sense at all. What do they want with 2 veteran PGs? Hinrich wouldn't stay over summer.
Chances/fit: 5%
8.) Sacramento Kings
Trade: Kirk Hinrich <---> Jason Thompson/DeMarcus Cousins + Fernando Garcia
Hawks: C
This is a tough one. Would the Hawks want to gamble on big time talent Cousins while they have their best franchise situation since the Dikembe/Smithee/Mookie era? Some would say take him when he is available, a no-brainer. Could be locker room cancer. Thompson though doesn't have the potential like Cousins, is PF and not really worth the trade. Garcia would be nasty for the payroll.
Kings: C
Are they really willing to loose their big man talent Cousins? Nobody thinks so right now, but that could change every minute. Thompson though, and getting rid of the terrible Garcia contract would make totally sense. Hinrich would mentor Evans, Thornton and Fredette and leave the Kings in summer.
Chances/fit: 20%
9.) Toronto Raptors
Trade: Kirk Hinrich + 1st round pick <---> Amir Johnson + Jarryd Bayless
Hawks: B-
Getting Johnson would be a great relieve for defense and rebounding, Bayless also is an PG talent that can break out soon. Behind Teague he would probably not though. The only negative aspect here is that Johnson has a pretty huhe contract to load on the shoulders for some more years.
Raptors: D
The Raptors could use Hinrich to mentor and backup DeRozan defensely for the season, and even have a thought about getting rid of Calderon and his contract in summer finally and sign Heinrich as their new PG to an extension. The ATL 1st rounder would be a nice addition for their rebuilding process. The loss of Johnson though would weaken the lame frontcourt immensly.
Chances/fit: 40%
10.) Gorden State Warriors
Trade: Kirk Hinrich <---> Andris Biedrins
Hawks: C
This trade would work when they fire their 2 unguaranteed players Pargo and Stackhouse. Biedrins is a starting C since back in the days, though he proved that he will never be a elite one. His contract would be on the payroll next season too.
Warriors: C
As Kwame Brown just went down, the Ws will hardly get away more big man, and it would be stupid to do that. The thinking here is: Hinrich though would be a pretty good mentor for Curry, and replace him all the times when his ankle says goodbye.
Chances/fit: 15%
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