Sonntag, 8. April 2012

How the UTAH JAZZ can make a plain rebuild

First off, I don't believe the Warriors will be in need to hand out their Top 7 Draftpick to the Jazz after the season, simply because they are eager to tank, rest their top players, and have the hardest rest schedule to play of all lottery teams. That said, it's pretty clear the Jazz will get another nice 1st rounder in the Draft 2013. If they would be able to miss the playoffs this and the next year, they would have their own lottery pick in both Drafts, 2012 and 2013 (who would wander to Minnesota if they make the playoffs). The Utah Jazz are on the verge of a decision. They could decide to make a pure rebuild right away. Here is what they could do if they make a plain cut:

Trading Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap on this years draft night for high picks in the lottery.
As the 2012 draft is projected as the best in the last 5 years at least, the Jazz could get player material for the future out of this by trading their two best players right now. Jefferson and Millsap are both in the form of their lives and remain sell-high candidates at this very point of time. Taking the pure numbers Jefferson ist on of the Top 3 Centers of the league in best age this year. There are definately teams willing to trade for that. Millsap turned out to be a real leader on the floor, an allround PF, is also in his best age and additionally has a pretty okay contract (8,6m$ next year). Both players also have expiring contract, no boundaries for teams trading for them, who nevertheless can negotiate the future of the players with their new clubs during contract year. All in all, now is simply the time to pull the trigger for the Jazz.

The only problem here is: Nearly no team in the league will offer their Top 3 pick (let's see how the lottery balls roll first though). Nobody will deliberately pass on Anthony Davis, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Thomas Robinson for those two impact veteran players. The Jazz would most certainly have to fall in love with players outside of the Top 3 to make the trades.

Which teams would be ready to make a trade, let's have a look:
The WASHINGTON WIZARDS (currently Pick 2) should be willing to push things forward. They have their franchise player in John Wall, he comes into his 3rd year, and they certainly want to get playoff ready sooner than later. They traded for Nêne, giving up 2 of their biggest young talents for that. So they are certainly not in a rebuild phase anymore. The Jazz maybe could acquire some more young talent, the Wizards are ready to give away.
Example: Al Jefferson/Paul Millsap <--> Wizards 1st round Pick + Jan Vesely (though their is a question mark here, as they have to find a way to regulate the cap space)
The SACRAMENTO KINGS (Pick 4) would be another team, who failed to bring the rebuild into good numbers. Tyreke Evans comes already into his final Rookie contract year, DeMarcus Cousins is already beasting around since some weeks, and is most certainly ready to get some wins for the efforts. With Isaiah Thomas they finally found their PG out of the blue. What they could need now would be another banging big man next to Cousins to dominate the boards in the league while finally playing for the playoffs spots.
Example: Al Jefferson/Paul Millsap + Devin Harris <--> 1st round pick + Chuck Hayes + a mix of Tyreke Evans/Marcus Thornton/John Salmons
The PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS could offer as much as their two 1st rounders in case they decide not to rebuild, but to form a win-now team centered around LaMarcus Aldridge and Nicolas Batum. Al Jefferson would form an elite big man duo with Aldridge, who would rock the league massively.
Example: Al Jefferson + Devin Harris <--> two 1st rounder + ? (cap space problems ahead though)
Little chances are there, that the TORONTO RAPTORS or DETROIT PISTONS would make a move. They are equally stuck in between rebuild and Playoff contenders (wannabees). Both lack of a real star player, so I doubt they would trade away the possibility to get one in the draft. The Pistons at least could make a move to get rid of some awful contract. If yes, trades could look like this:
Raptors: Al Jefferson/Paul Millsap + Devin Harris <--> 1st round Pick + Jose Calderon + Amir Johnson
Pistons: Al Jefferson/Paul Millsap <--> 1st round Pick + Ben Gordon + Charlie Villanueva + Austin Daye + Jonas Jerebko
I don't think the CHARLOTTE BOBCATS, NEW ORLEANS HORNETS or CLEVELAND CAVALIERS would make a move, as they are clearly all about rebuild and will not give away their pick for a fine big man. The GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS - should they really keep their pick - are the only team which is loaded enough now in the frontcourt, with Bogut and Lee.

Let's take an double-trade scenario on draftday, the Jazz would have the following team on draftnight 2013:
2 Lottery Picks 2010: Derrick Favors + Gordon Hayward
2 Lottery Picks 2011: Enes Kanter + Alec Burks
3-4 Lottery Picks 2012
2 Lottery Pick 2013
would make a total of 9-10 Lottery Picks in 4 years. Nearly an whole NBA team.
  
Additionally to that, they also can unload the unpleasant contract of Devin Harris to free cap room with the trades on draftnight. With Jefferson, Harris and Millsap gone, the Jazz would be free to even sign 2 or 3 veterans to slightly overpaid, but therefore shorter contracts, to round up the team.

Now, that looks like a bright future!


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