Here are some trade scenarios for the Deadline that make sense to me. I don't include unlikely, but widely discussed combinations (f.e. Dwight Howard rentals), just trades that actually sounds good to me in every way. These trades can be huge constructions as you will see.
1. The Dwight Howard 3 Team Blockbuster Trade between the Magic, Lakers and Rockets
# ORL gets: Andrew Bynum + Kevin Martin + Jordan Hill/Chase Budinger + Goran Dragic + one of two Lakers 1st round picks 2012
# LAL gets: Dwight Howard + Luis Scola + Jameer Nelson
# HOU gets: Pau Gasol
This would be kind of the classic deal that originally was on the table when Chris Paul got dealt, this time just involving D-12, and putting the pieces differently together.
Why doing this?
ORL: That's simply the best package Orlando can get on the table right now. They get the Top 5 future Center in Bynum, and can cash out Pau Gasol for 2nd string star Kevin Martin, who can immediately be the best option in the offense. Additionally they get rid of Jameer Nelsons big numbers, and replace him with cheap and young gun Goran Dragic. They get another young talent from the Rockets (Jordan Hill as Backup for the front court or Chase Budinger as backup for Hedo), and build more for their future by getting the Lakers pick.
LAL: That's simply the only way the Lakers get their hand on Dwight - dealing both of their strong trade chips, by getting back not only Dwight, but also some interesting additional players. To be honest, I think it's bluffing what the Lakers did the last month. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see the Lakers doing the Howard deal in the last seconds. They are simply in need of a big move and will most certainly give away Pau Gasol in the best deal possible anyways. Here they have it all: They get their superstar to be next to Kobe, they get an immediate Gasol replacement by the ultra-solid decency Luis Scola, and finally get their PG they are searching for in Nelson, who is additionally to that also one of Howards best mates.
HOU: The Rockets simply get the deal done that was blocked some months ago. This here is the exact offer they made back then. They pulled the trigger then, they will do it here again. Period.
Tradebreaker?
The biggest question here is: Are the Lakers really willing to part with Bynum? And: Are the Magic high enough on him to take him as Howard substitute?
Chances: 90%
2. The Dwight Howard 3 Team Blockbuster Trade between the Magic, Lakers and Timberwolves
# ORL gets: Andrew Bynum + Derrick Williams + the two Lakers 1st round picks 2012
# LAL gets: Dwight Howard + Michael Beasley + Luke Ridnour
# MIN gets: Pau Gasol
Why doing this?
ORL: Next to top 5 Howard compensatory Bynum they get a huge talent and soon to be Top forward of the league in Williams. The two Lakers picks should seal the deal. This package smells strongly like a strike for the future.
LAL: Same Game like with the Rockets: The Lakers need to make a move, and Gasol is out of town anyways. Here they get the reward in form of Beasley, who they admire, and Ridnour, their future PG. Both targets they canvass anyways.
MIN: This here is the most interesting part: The Timberwolves would change their gameplan to a win-now modus. They would give away basically 2 players they are ready to get rid of anyway. But they would most certainly have to include one of their cornerstones for their future: Their Nr. 2 pick Derrick Williams. He most definately would be the dealbreaker. With the trade they could pair up the spanish tandem Gasol and Rubio, and play upstairs for the next 3 years guaranteed. The point why I think this one isn't unrealistic at all is that I spotted Minnys interest for that change already as they were trying to get rid of their 2nd pick in summer before draft. With Rubios outcome they certainly must be even more eager to change their team to a winning team right now. Plus: GM Kahn is on the decks. He is always good for such an surprising move.
Tradebreaker?
Next to the Bynum question from before of course: Is Minny interested in this move?
Chances: 80%
3. Dwight Howard stays, the Magic trade for Monta Ellis
# ORL gets: Monta Ellis
# GSW gets: JJ Redick + Glen Davis + ORL 1st rounder 2012
Why doing this?
ORL: To please Dwight by getting a straight away scorer all over the place. Monta could support Howard in a huge way by being the 2nd fiddle and strong offensive contributor. If they get Ellis they don't need Redick anymore, Bif Baby Davis was a disappointment anyways, and the 1st rounder would have to be sacrificed for a good reason.
GSW: They try to trade Ellis since years, and now they for the first time finally have an taker, who really wants him. Redick is a young guard, great shooter and contributor, who still has contract for the next season. Davis would add a big body in the frontcourt, the Warriors are always looking for. And the 1st rounder would finally sweeten the deal.
Tradebreaker?
Do the Warriors want to strengthen the Magic, despite being interested in Howard themselves?
Chances: 65%
4. Dwight Howard stays, the Magic trade for Josh Smith
# ORL gets: Josh Smith
# ATL gets: Ryan Anderson + JJ Redick + Justin Harper + ORL 1st rounder 2012
Why doing this?
ORL: The Magic get a strong PF which huge effect on the offensive and defensive end. Smith would form a tremendous tag-team with Dwight in the frontcourt. And both are known to be good friends.
ATL: The only reason to get rid of Smith right now is that he requests it. There are various rumors spreading around the net that he is, or not. Guess this is just an hoax actually, but if the Hawks would do it, they would get a PF at his top in return (which would though also be an high buying move). JJ Redick would be an nice complement from the bench (kind of an Jamal Crawford substitute), Justin Harper as backup PF (for salary reasons, Magic likely would have to waive another player), and the ORL 1st as deal sweetner. Still: This deal sucks for the Hawks.
Tradebreaker?
The unwillingness of the Hawks to split with Smith right now, when they also can do it in offseason to retain some nice draft picks.
Chances: 35%
5. The Pau Gasol to the Rockets trade without involving Dwight Howard
# HOU gets: Pau Gasol + Devin Ebanks + Darius Morris/Andrew Goudelock
# LAL gets: Luis Scola + Patrick Patterson + Jordan Hill + Goran Dragic + Chase Budinger + Courtney Lee + Marcus Morris + one of the two HOU 1st rounder 2012 OR Chandler Parsons
Why doing this?
HOU: Simply they adore Gasol, had an deal on the table since summer, and just wait to grab him right now. They want to pair the on the peek of his career Gasol with Kyle Lowry (the deal will not work involving Lowry in the package), and obviously think this would be it. The guarantee for a deep playoff run. And they would be open to trade anybody on the team not named Lowry. As Martin ain't an option (same position as Kobe Bryant) they would most certainly have to include everything else in talent they can offer. Including hot streaking 2nd rounder Parsons and/or one of their picks. Or even both? This would get crazy...
LAL: They can choose and negotiate the best package available on the market. This clearly would be kind of a rebuild and deep destructuring of their team. Scola would be the exact substitute for Gasol. Patterson, Hill and Morris could be the new generation at PF behind him. Budinger and Parsons could finally be the solution on SF since Odom is gone, and Barnes, Ebanks and Metta World Peace disappointed everybody. Dragic finally is the PG they are in deep need these days. If you add both picks they Lakers actually would have 4 (!) 1st round picks in a deep draft this year. That actually sounds like a perfect rebuilding process. (Ebanks + one of their 2nd round PGs are just in the trade for roster spot reasons. Of course the Lakers would love to drop Metta World on the Rockets, but i highly doubt that they would also accept this dump).
Tradebreaker?
Do the Lakers really want a straight up rebuild in the middle of the season with Kobe still in best shape? How much are the Rockets really willing to give up from their youngsters?
Chances: 45%
6. The long discussed Dwight Howard to the Nets trade
# ORL gets: Brook Lopez + MarShon Brooks + Anthony Morrow/Jordan Farmer + Nets 1st rounder 2012 + Rockets 1st rounder 2012
# NJN gets: Dwight Howard
Why doing this?
ORL: The trade scenario in case Dwight says: "Trade me now!". The best offer ORL can get in case the LAL scenarios fell through in their complexity.
NJN: The best package the Nets can offer. Simple and straight.
Tradebreaker?
Next to the "Do we really have to trade you now, Dwight?" question: Will the Nets give all their future assets away just to get Dwight 6 weeks earlier as they would possibly get him anyway?
Chances: 50%
7. The "We don't get Dwight, but need assets!" meets "We need a change now!" trade between the Nets and the Blazers
# NJN gets: Jamal Crawford + Raymond Felton + Gerald Wallace
# POR gets: Anthony Morrow + Jordan Farmar + Shawne Williams expiring + Mehmet Okur expiring + HOU 1st rounder 2012
Why doing this?
NJN: They need assets now, to convince Deron Williams to stay! If they fail to get Dwight without a good chance to get him in free agency this summer, they have to act. The Blazers are the most willing partner to listen, as they are nearly as desperate as the Nets. The two teams just have to work something out. Blazers want to get rid of these 3 players, who are all together nice veterans, who could move something in a new team (especially with a guy like Deron around). All 3 still have funk in the trunk, and could bring back the Nets into playoff race. Maybe that would be enough to please Deron.
POR: The Blazers simply need to get rid of the "negative elements" as McMillan will see them. They are desperate as they struggle about the Playoffs after starting so promising into the season. The deal doesn't sound too good, but is maybe the best what they can get on the market right now. Felton dead wood right now, and they could replace him with stuck-behind-Deron Jordan Farmar, who is good enough to be starter in Portland. Morrow would be a younger, long committed help from the bench behind Matthews. and with that an good Crawford substitute. Finally they contracts they are rid of in offseason, and at least a promising mid round pick for the upcoming draft as sweetner. It could get worst.
Dealbreaker?
Dwight Howard. And a simply better offer for the 3 vets on the open market.
Chances: 35%
8. The Blazers - Lakers - Timberwolves 3-way Trade
# MIN gets: Jamal Crawford + Steve Blake
# LAL gets: Michael Beasley + Raymond Felton
# POR gets: Luke Ridnour + LAL 1st rounder
Why doing this?
MIN: They want to get rid of Beasley, and desperately need a scoring SG. Crawford is just that, for a moderate price. Ridnour is expendable because of Rubio and could replace him for this season with Blake, who should be a fine backup.
LAL: They want Beasley, and need a new PG. Blake is more than expendable for them, and they would have to sacrifice their 1st rounder as deal sweetener. Ridnour would maybe the more interesting PG than Felton, so the deal could get adjusted. Felton though was a fine PG back in Charlotte and NY, and is still 26, so there is a good possibility he just needs a new surrounding to blossom again.
POR: They get rid of Crawford and Felton, get back admirable PG and a 1st for the future. This is a win-win situation for them.
Dealbreaker?
Does someone take Felton? Is LA ready to give away a 1st rounder for this?
Chances: 65%
9. The Chris Kaman Trade
10. The Kirk Hinrich Trade
Keine Kommentare:
Kommentar veröffentlichen